Friday 30 January 2015

Technical Outlook Of Nifty Fut(NSE-FEB):1-3 days










For Nifty Fut (NF), 9045-9065 zone will be immediate resistance, followed by 9125 zone. Rate cut hopes (at least 0.25 BPS) on 3-rd Feb may keep the momentum going and before budget, NF may touch 9300 area.

On the downside, 8970 zone may act as immediate support (intraday), below which comes 8915-8885 zone (Positional support as of now).

Globally, all eyes will be on the PMI data of China on the weekend (Sunday) & RBA (AUD) decision on 3-rd Feb (there was some heavy rate cut speculation yesterday & it aided dollar strength).

Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (NSE-FEB)











Gap Up/Dw (Indicative)


SGX NIFTY 9015 29



        NF-FEB LTP 8986
             
             
  SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR        
             
  Intraday Swing  Trader        
      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8990   9022-9065* 9104-9125 9145-9167 <8970
             
Weak < 8970   8936-8915* 8900-8885 8847-8817 >8990







FOR  Conservative Positional Trader









      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8990   9065* 9125 9167-9200 <8970
             
Weak < 8970   8915* 8885 8817-8795 >8990
             
 

Wednesday 28 January 2015

Technical Outlook Of Nifty Fut(NSE-JAN):1-2 days










Nifty Fut(NF) will have to sustain above 8950 zone for target of 9000/9100 area and 9300 (before budget) and 9600 (after budget, if it really affirm the 2-nd generation reform process).

On the downside, 8880-8860 area should provide support & sustain below that 8665 zone will be the major positional support for the time being.

On the global front, all eyes would be to the Fed Minutes today at late night. But, by the Durable Goods report of the US yesterday, FED may not change its basic language ("PATIENT") until March'2015 and ultimately it may be forced to think about real rate hike in Jan'2016 (with lots of caveats of course).

Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (NSE-JAN)




Gap Up/Dw (Indicative)


SGX NIFTY 8900 -18



        NF-JAN LTP 8918
             
             
  SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR        
             
  Intraday Swing  Trader        
      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8880   8930-8950* 8985-9001 9035-9065 <8860
             
Weak < 8860   8834-8818* 8793-8777 8743-8710 >8880







FOR  Conservative Positional Trader









      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8880   8950* 9001 9065-9102 <8860
             
Weak < 8860   8818* 8777 8710-8657 >8880
             

Tuesday 27 January 2015

How much TATAMOTORS could bolted away under the leadership of Mayank Pareek ?







TATAMOTORS (CMP:588) has made a lot of run from 468 zone to 591 recently (more than 25%).

Looking at the chart, 597-600 zone is immediate target & above that, it could scale 630-640 area in the short/medium term.

On the downside, 568-540 zone, should offer positional support as of now.

Under the leadership of Pareek (ex-Maruti), the company is slowly changing itself from a commercial vehicle centric (mainly catering to fleet operators) to a more passenger vehicle one (catering to niche individuals in the domestic segment, competing to  Ritz-Maruti, Brio-Honda, I-10-Hyundai etc) led by newly launched "Bolt" in the Petrol variant.

The company is planning two more new launches in this year & is on an expansion drive for its dealership network.

This, coupled with global factors (JLR/China/EU etc), re-rating of the company may be on the card.




Monday 26 January 2015

How much L&T could scale post US-India Nuke and Defence deal?









L&T could be a major beneficiary of the US-India Nuke & Defence deal. Its also gaining immensely from "Modinomics" theme, thanks to increase infrastructure spending in India.

Although L&T (CMP: 1711) has run up a lot recently from 1486 zone, looking at the chart, it could go 1778-1825 zone in the short term and in the long term (1 year), it could even go to 2220 zone.  

On the downside, 1690 & 1648 may be the positional supports for the time being.

Friday 23 January 2015

Technical Outlook Of Nifty Fut(NSE-JAN):1-5 days







As par SGX Nifty, our Nifty Fut(NF) may open around 8865 zone, thanks to ECB QE overnight.

For intraday, 8885 & 8910 could act as resistance & sustaining above that 9000 zone will be on the card today, followed by 9300 by next week, if Greece throws no nasty surprise.

Immediate intraday support for NF could be 8850 zone & below that 8815-8795 area should give us positional support as of now.

Yesterday's ECB QE @ EURO 60 B per month for 18 M (Total EURO 1.1 T) or be kept open, if required (open ended), is somewhat above market estimates. This QE will keep the tap open, even if FED decides to raise rate by mid 2015. But, with this ECB QE, FED will have to choose, if it let USD to gain more strength (by hiking rate) or have confidence that this ECB move could stimulate global growth (so that FED could normalize policy).


Trading Levels: Nifty Fut(NSE-JAN)




Gap Up/Dw (Indicative)


SGX NIFTY 8865 81



        NF-JAN LTP 8784
             
             
  SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR        
             
  Intraday Swing  Trader        
      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8815   8835-8853 8885-8910* 8950-8988 <8795
             
Weak < 8795   8773-8736 8707-8660* 8631-8574 >8815







FOR  Conservative Positional Trader









      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8815   8853 8910* 8988-9010 <8795
             
Weak < 8795   8736 8660* 8574-8552 >8815
             


Thursday 22 January 2015

Technical Outlook Of ITC







ITC (CMP:353) was down heavily yesterday on the back of the dismal result, specially from its Cigarette business (high taxes is hurting sales).

Looking at the chart, 345-343 is a strong positional support zone & below that comes 331 zone.

Immediate resistance 366 & above that 373-379 should be the short term target.

Medium term target should be 400-418 & long term target may be around 438-445.

But at first, it has to sustain above 366 & then above 400 (forthcoming budget may bring more clarity for ITC -Cigarette products). 

After result, Goldman Sachs, Bofa ML retain its long term target (after some EPS downgrade) in the range of 420-440 on the back of long term demand potential and better returns of its products (specially FMCG). Hotel business may also contribute significantly going forward.


Wednesday 21 January 2015

Technical Outlook Of Nifty Fut(NSE-JAN):1-5 days








Nifty Fut(NF) has positional resistance around 8780-8800 zone, sustaining above which 9000 level is on the card by next few sessions. Going by the momentum, NF may scale 9600 zone after budget (if it fulfills 2-nd generation reforms as promised by our FM).

On the downside, 8665 area is immediate positional support as of now & sustaining below that, we could see 8530 & 8450 level again (low possibility as of now).

IMF forecast of India's accelerated GDP growth in the coming years & the imminent QE by ECB (EURO 500 B is almost a done deal) along with some good news for Metal sectors acted as a trigger yesterday.

Trading Levels: (Nifty Fut-NSE-JAN)




Gap Up/Dw (Indicative)


SGX NIFTY 8736 24



        NF-JAN LTP 8712
             
             
  SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR        
             
  Intraday Swing  Trader        
      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8690   8735-8765 8780-8800* 8825-8850 <8670
             
Weak < 8670   8650-8630 8588-8557* 8530-8492 >8690







FOR  Conservative Positional Trader









      T1 T2 T3 SLR
Strong > 8690   8765 8800* 8850-9010 <8670
             
Weak < 8670   8630 8557* 8492-8450 >8690
             





Tuesday 20 January 2015

Technical Outlook Of Tata Steel






Tata Steel (CMP:385) is another under performer in NIFTY-50 last year.

For Tata Steel, 371 is now a strong support zone & immediate target could be 425/448/492 area.
In the medium term (6-12 months), it could scale 560-580 zone (provided it sustained above 435) & in the long term (12-24 months), it could run up to 625-685 zone. But, for this Corus debt book has to be also streamlined.

Pros:
  • Recent interim order of Odisha & Jharkhand High Court regarding resumption of mining.
  • Domestic theme & possible high consumption.
  • Input costs reduction possibility due to key iron ore mines to be on stream in the next few quarters.
  • Gradual recovery in EU will improve demands for metals.
  • Strong USD against EURO.

Cons:
  •  Recent China Growth fear (but to day China GDP growth printed as 7.3% & IIP @ 7.9%, which is above estimates).
  • Dumping of steels from CIS countries & China at lower prices.
Re-rating of the stock may be on card.

 

Monday 19 January 2015

Technical Outlook Of Reliance Industries








RIL (CMP: 870) is a clear under performer over the last couple of years because of various reasons like:

  • Recent crash of Crude Price
  • Oil & Gas is a politically sensitive item in our country & numerous litigation is going on with the RIL  regarding gas pricing and all etc.
 But the situation may change over the next few years. With this, coupled with complete deregulation of oil (RIL again started its retail pumps networks) & foray into 4G network venture, one can expect its full year EPS from INR 68 level to at least INR 80 by FY-2015-16. Its enjoying a poor P/E of around 13 against an industry average of around 18. By this simple assumption, one could expect a price of around INR 1600 (80*20) by next Jan'2016 (taking forward P/E as 20).

Technically, RIL should sustain above 875 for 902-925 zone & 1016 (for short term) & medium term tgt of 1150.

Sustain above 1150, may invite 1650 zone in the next one year.

On the down side, 830-825 is a strong support zone followed by 805-793 area. (Low Probability)