Axis Bank: Life After Result (478-507-655)

Technically, Axis Bank (CMP:552) has to sustain above 564 for an immediate target of 581-600 zone. Consecutive closing above 600, short term target may be around 625-655 area. Sustain above 655, Axis Bank could scale 700-800 territory in the mid to long term (FY:16-17, under bull market scenerio).

On the flip side, immediate support is around 540 & sustain below that it could fall to 534-524 area immediately & below that, it could fall 517-507 zone in the near term. Consecutive closing below 507, Axis Bank could crash to 485-478 zone & below that came 460-398 zone (under worst bear market scenerio, although very low probability).

Bottom line (Cyclical Trading Levels):

460-478-485-507-517-524-534-540-553-564-581-600-625-655

Axis Bank published its Q4 result yesterday at the fag end of the market, which is well above the street expectations backed by superior NII, retail loan growth & other fee based income and relatively stable NPA, despite NIM slipped a bit & higher provisions.

Going ahead, management is also confident of sequentially slower rise of NPA on the back of expected economic revival & corporate loan growth. For the banking industry, there is always a considerable lag period between RBI rate cuts & their own base rate cuts (3-4 months) and this factor might be helpful for healthy NIM in the coming quarters.

Axis Bank also approved FII limit from current 62% to 74% along with issue of DR(s) @ 5:1. There is no immediate plan of equity dilution in the near term.

As par BG metrics of quick TF model, median valuation of Axis Bank is around 625 as par the current TTM EPS. Projected median value may be around 655-700 (FY:16-17) under the current market conditions.

 

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	LONG TERM	SHORT TERM	MEDIAN VALUE	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
AXISBANK	31.56	151.42	23.88	604.64	637.24	620.94	485.09	538.81

 

AXISBANK

37.55

193.8

21.13

620.39

653.84

637.12

485.09

538.81

 

AXISBANK

44.3

248

21.13

673.85

710.18

692.02

485.09

538.81

   

Yes Bank: Yes, We Can Still Buy It (Range: 771-802-907)

Technically Yes Bank (CMP: 826) has immediate good support of 801 followed by 788-771 zone. Consecutive closing below 771, it could crash to 748-700 zone under worst bear market scenerio (low probability as of now).

On the upside, it has to sustain above 840 for an immediate target of 855-865 and sustain above that, it could scale 878-907 in the short term. Consecutive closing above 920-935, target may be around 975-1050 in the mid to long term (FY:16).

Bottom line (Cyclical Trading Levels):

748-771-788-801-823-840-855-865-878-907-920

Q4 result of Yes Bank is largely above market expectations backed by strong NII & other income (specially Fee & Cross Sale).

Going ahead, management of Yes Bank is confident enough to keep the sequential growth in the net earnings of the bank on the back drop of increasing retail/SME advances, and CASA deposits. Its also very active in CV business. Being a new generation bank, backed by robust management & system, over all asset qualities (NPA) is also expected to stay stable, despite out performing industry credit growth.

To support future growth, Yes Bank management board also recently approved a host of plans like possible QIP of  $1 bln, raising FII limit from present 49% to 74% and listing in US. Its also expanding fast domestically by opening new branches and also in Gulf Countries (Abu Dhabi) to tap potential NRI deposits etc.

As par BG metrics of quick TF valuation, median value of Yes Bank is around 900 as par current TTM EPS. Projected value may be around 1020-1150 (FY:16-17) under the current market conditions (Bull Market Scenario).

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	LONG TERM	SHORT TERM	MEDIAN VALUE	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
YESBANK	49.15	219.73	21.13	860.60	923.35	891.97	713.14	820.93

YESBANK

63.9

285.65

21.13

981.27

1052.82

1017.04

713.14

820.93

YESBANK

83

371

21.13

1118.35

1199.89

1159.12

713.14

820.93

ICICI Bank: Life After Result (Range: 290-390)---worst is over ??

Technically, ICICI Bank (CMP: 302) has immediate support of around 295 & below that 290 may offer a strong positional support. Sustain below 290, it could target 282-265-247-229 zone in the near term (under worst case scenerio).

On the upside, it has to sustain above 303-308-312 zones for immediate target of 317-325-328 area. Consecutive closing above 328, ICICI Bank could scale 340-362 in the short to mid term. Sustain above 362, it may target 393-410 & 530 zones in the long term (FY:16-18, under Bull market scenerio).

Bottom Line:Cyclical Trading Levels

265-282-290-295-303-308-312-317-328-340-348-362-393-403-410

Although result of ICICI Bank (published yesterday during mkt hours) is more or less in line with street estimates, it lags behind on asset quality (NPA).

Going ahead, FY-15 may be the peak of NPA addition & in the coming quarters, we could see a real down trend in this issue in the backdrop of expected revival in our economy and pick up in corporate loan demands. Also, there is a huge possibility of its de-leveraging (by listing Insurance & Broking arms separately).

As par BG metrics of quick TF model, median valuation of ICICI Bank is around 400 as par current consolidated TTM EPS of 21.17. If we assume projected FWD EPS of around 26 & 32, median value may be around 442 & 490 (FY:16-17).

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	LONG TERM	SHORT TERM	MEDIAN VALUE	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
ICICIBANK	21.17	131.83	23.88	400.36	397.18	398.77	317.06	312.04

ICICIBANK

25.96

143.7

23.88

443.34

439.82

441.58

317.06

312.04

ICICIBANK

31.95

158.1

23.88

491.84

487.93

489.88

317.06

312.04

  

Nifty Fut: Taking Support Nr 8280, Immediate Target 8535 ??

Technically, NF-I (LTP: 8339 & SGX NF-8350) has immediate positional support near 8328-8280 zone & sustain below that 8214-8150 zone may be the last point, after which there will be serious question mark about our "Bull Market". Consecutive closing below 8150, NF may crash to 8000-7350-7150 zone (very low probability as of now).

On the upside, sustain above 8328, NF may target 8412-8456-8535 zone immediately. Consecutive closing above 8535 area, we may again see 8875 zone & sustain above that, there may be no major resistance till 9012 & 9191 zone.

Protection of 8280 zone, may lead to a new EW cycle & end of corrective A-B-C phase and NF may scale 9200-9500-9700 zone in the new cycle.

On Friday, NF bounced back quite strongly from 8280 zone in the last half an hour on the back of news that actual MAT (FII) figures so far is quite low around 603 cr against 40000 cr rumored. There is also news that Indian PF fund may start investing in our stock market in a small way through PSU ETF(s) initially. There is also some talk of a out of policy rate cut action by RBI in May. In the earnings front, major results & guidance so far are inline or not much below market expectations.

Along with the above, possible passage of GST & LAND Bills in the RS may be the immediate drivers of our market and NF may scale 9200-9700 in the next few months.

Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (NSE-APR)

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8350	11
				NF-APR	LTP	8339
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8280		8328-8355	8376-8412*	8430-8456	<8260
Weak <	8260		8238-8214	8169-8150*	8108-8000	>8280
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8280		8376	8456*	8535	<8260
Weak <	8260		8214	8150*	8000	>8280

Crude Oil: New Range (40-60-80) Under Free Market Economy Without OPEC Intervention ??

Looking at the Chart, technically Crude Oil (CMP:57.39) has to sustain above 58.50- 59.50 area for further up move to 65-70 & 75-80 zone in the short to mid term.

On the flip side, consecutive closing below 54, it may again fall to 49.50 & 44 zone in the near term.

Fragile pause of bombings by Saudi Arabia led coalition on Yemen rebels & possibility of more stimulus by China (to prevent further slow down its economy) along with continuing decrease of Baker Huges Oil Rig Counts are drivers of the Crude Oil at this moment. 

But continuing increase of supply/demand mismatch may be also a head wind in the near term.

Going ahead, cyclical Geo-Political tensions, expected pick up of demands from China & India (as industrial activity and investment cycle will revive ) may be some of the drivers for Crude Oil. Also, it may be presumed that worst is over for EU/US/Japan & other advance economics and subsequently as growths pick up, demand of Crude Oil might grow in a steady way.

But, increasing over supply may be the main reason to keep the Crude Oil price in a range, preferably above 60-65 $, where most of the oil producers will make it break even & invest. We also need investments in Oil & Gas sector to keep our world GDP clock running.

In short, without OPEC intervention, under free market economy, Crude Oil range may be between 40-60-80 in the coming days (under worst to very good conditions for Crude Oil).

Gold: Make Or Break ?? (Near Term Range: 1142-1170-1225-1245 )

Technically, Gold (CMP: 1179) has good positional support of around 1170 zone & only sustain below that, it could fall to 1142. Consecutive closing below 1142, it may further fall to 1130-1123 zone in the near term.

On the upside, sustain above 1173 zone, Gold may target 1184-1197-1210 area immediately & sustain above that 1224 may be the short term target. In the mid term, consecutive closing above 1224, Gold may scale 1240-1245 area.

Over all, Gold may be range bound going ahead. At this moment, rally in US & other stock markets & possible immediate solution of Greece are some of the laggards for Gold. But, Fed will be in no hurry (at least late 2015) to be on hawkish side and along with this, never ending QE/stimulus by different economics to devalue its currency may keep the appeal of the physical assets, such as Gold intact. Demands form different Central Bankers & "Love Affairs" of  Gold with people from South Asian Countries (specially, India/China) will keep its demand & value and "Safe Heaven" appeal intact.

INFY: After Result Impact (Near Term Range :1900-2400) ??

Technically, INFY (CMP:1995) has good support around 1965 followed by 1924-1896 zone. Sustain below 1896-1880, it may fall to 1850-1817 & consecutive closing below 1817, it may crash to 1765-1700 zone (low probability as of now).

On the upside. INFY has to sustain above 1991-2024 zone for an immediate target of 2070-2100-2115 area. Sustain above 2115, it could target 2158-2200-2260 zone in the short term. Only a consecutive closing above 2260, it may scale to 2337-2350 area in the medium term. Sustain above 2350, INFY may scale 2410- 2450-2550 territory in the long run (FY:16-17).

Bottom Line (Technical Trading Levels):

1817-1850-1896-1924-1965-1991-2024-2070-2100-2115-2158-2200-
                                                                     2260-2337-2350-2410

INFY got corrected substantially for the last few trading sessions, specially yesterday, after it published its Q4 result during market hours, which was quite disappointing and below street expectations. This is mainly for some ramp-downs in some verticals like energy & telecom and headwinds in cross currency.

Going ahead, INFY is confident for a generalized revenue guidance growth of around 10-12 %, which may be slightly above market expectations (although below Nascom's sector guidance of 12-14%). But, INFY management appears to be in the process of building long term vision to target a revenue of around $20 bln in 2020 from the present level of around $9 bln and its legendary CEO, Vishal Sikka is quite confident, terming it as "feasible & viable".

Basically, INFY may be going through a fundamental & structural transition. Its concentrating more on automation of its various platforms to reduce operational cost, inorganic push by acquiring various strategically fit digital company and new start up focus for both short & long term goal. 

Its Indian operation is also growing fairly and may be expected to grow further, given the "Digital India" push by "Modinomics".  

With expected increase in discretionary spending for IT in various geographies, specially US & EU (where worst may be far behind & growth is expected to pick up substantially in the coming quarters), a cash rich & well managed IT company like INFY may be a "Bright Spot" in the days ahead, both for itself & its share holders.

As par BG metrics of quick TF model, median valuation of INFY is around 2200 by considering its current TTM EPS of around 107. If we assume projected FWD EPS of around 120 & 132, its median value may be around 2300 & 2400 (FY:16-17).

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	LONG TERM	SHORT TERM	MEDIAN VALUE	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
INFY	107.89	387.74	21.2	2151.55	2217.21	2184.38	2023.88	2149.29

INFY

119.72

465.3

21.2

2266.44

2335.60

2301.02

2023.88

2149.29

INFY

131.7

558.3

21.2

2377.13

2449.67

2413.40

2023.88

2149.29

  

HDFC Bank: Consistent Performer (Near Term Range: 990-1110)

Technically HDFC Bank (CMP: 1013) has immediate support of around 999-990 followed by 980-970 zone. Sustain below 970, it could fall to 917-903-887 zone (low probability as of now).

On the up side, it has to break above 1037 for an immediate target of 1051-1065. Consecutive closing above 1065, HDFC Bank may scale 1085-1110 zone in the short term. Sustain above 1110-1120, it may target 1150-1225-1250 in the mid to long term (FY-16).

Bottom line (Technical Trading Levels):

887-903-917-936-946-970-990-999-1025-1037-1051-1065-1085-1110

Result of HDFC Bank (published yesterday during mkt hours) is largely in line with street estimates backed by healthy loan growth & fee income along with third party products revenue (specially EQ MF) and stable asset quality (NPA).

Going ahead, its expected to continue sequential higher growth, thanks to uptick in NIM & NII, backed by increasingly expansion of its branches. With the expected revival in Indian economy, loan disbursements may be higher wrt to average industry growth rate along with stable NPA. So far, for the last two years, it is largely concentrating on retail loans & CV.

Also, there is a great possibility of unlocking value of its subsidiary by listing them (de-leverage of Insurance & Broking arm) and merger itself with housing loan giant HDFC in the coming days.

Considering all these factors and robust management, HDFC Bank is expected to continue its stellar performance in the coming quarters.

As par BG metrics of quick TF model, median valuation of HDFC Bank is around 1110 by considering its current TTM EPS of around 44. If we assume projected FWD EPS of around 54 & 70, the median value may be around 1100-1275 (FY:16-17) under the current market conditions.

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	LONG TERM	SHORT TERM	MEDIAN VALUE	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
HDFCBANK	44.1	173.55	23.43	988.76	1027.13	1007.95	946.17	1021.04

 

HDFCBANK

52.41

210

23.43

1077.90

1119.73

1098.82

946.17

1021.04

 

HDFCBANK

70.5

250

23.43

1250.16

1298.68

1274.42

946.17

1021.04

 

Nifty Fut-I: Found Double Bottom Near 8300---could we see 8875-9200 By Next Few Weeks ?

Technically NF (LTP: 8468 & SGX NF: 8502) has to sustain above 8535 zone for 8700 & 8875-9200 by next few weeks. 

On the flip side, immediate support is near 8477-8448 zone, followed by 8411-8365 and sustain below that 8328-8273 zone will offer positional support as of now. 

Consecutive closing below 8273 zone, NF may drift to 8210-8161-8110-8000 zone also under worst case scenerio (very low probability as of now).

Some clear clarification by the Govt about MAT (FII) yesterday evening may help as those FII(s) covered under DTAAs (like Singapore/Mauritius route) are not required to pay. Others have to take necessary legal recourse (SC) and Govt is ready to help them. It appears that the IT Dept is on the back foot now and may not chase FII(s) actively. On the other hand, Govt is agreed to expand the MAT exemption to income from bonds also after the requests of FII(s).

Though, IMD is forecasting some what below average monsoon, SKY MET is predicting it as normal. As par EL-NINO is concerned, various international specialists (like NOAA) are not confirming it at all, though has remote possibility. But, actual EL-NINO may even increase rain fall in some part of our country in lieu of decrease.

Market may now focus on earnings and passage of bills (GST/Land) in the LS/RS.

Globally, there is no such bad news except some Greece drama, which may be solved again in the next few days. On the other hand, China is ready to do more (like more CRR cut etc) to prevent further slowing of its economy. FED may also be in the side line in 2015, till more clarity emerges about US & Global economy, specially China/EU/Japan.

Technical Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (NSE-APR)

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8502	35
				NF-APR	LTP	8467
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8535		8560-8585	8605-8643*	8670-8700	<8515
Weak <	8515		8477-8448	8411-8365*	8328-8273	>8535
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8535		8585	8643*	8700-8745	<8515
Weak <	8515		8448	8365*	8328-8273	>8535