SGX NF:7965
NSE NF:7898
Fed did not raise any interest and the subsequent statement and Q&A by Yellen (FOMC Chairwoman) is quite dovish also.
As expected and pointed out in previous notes, Fed did a official "Hawkish Hold", although practically it can be termed as "Dovish Hold" . Possibility of Oct or even Dec'15 hike is little amid inflation trend in US and overall economic strength, China jitters, EM outflow concern, already strong USD etc.
Now Fed Fund Rate future is projecting 50% probability of Dec'15 hike and Fed Dot Plot is showing little aggressive Fed movements in the days ahead. Although there is some probability that Fed may hike in Dec'15 or by Mar'16, 0.25-0.50% will be the maximum scenario until 2017-18!! Near zero interest is the new normal now.
SGX NF hit a high of around 8050 in the after noon yesterday as some Fed talks were leaked (??) early; now trading around 7965.
Early Asian market is trading on the neutral zone expect Japan, which is down by around 1.5% as of now, mat be because of stronger yen.
Possibility of early RBI action (rate cut) is there (even before 29-th Sep).
Technically, for NF today, 7935-7880-7815 should provide good support and below that came 7760-7715.
On the upside, sustain above 7935, immediate target should be 8000-8075 & 8125-81200 today/next few days.
As FII seems to be still in some short position in FNO, market may came down to some extent today and buy on dips may work in the short to medium term.
A dovish/hawkish hold by Fed, also underlines lack of confidence of Fed on US/global economy and the same Fed lift off uncertainty will be there in the days ahead---in that sense this total Fed drama might be turned as a pure non-event too. Market will concentrate on other factors like China, RBI action etc.
NSE NF:7898
Fed did not raise any interest and the subsequent statement and Q&A by Yellen (FOMC Chairwoman) is quite dovish also.
As expected and pointed out in previous notes, Fed did a official "Hawkish Hold", although practically it can be termed as "Dovish Hold" . Possibility of Oct or even Dec'15 hike is little amid inflation trend in US and overall economic strength, China jitters, EM outflow concern, already strong USD etc.
Now Fed Fund Rate future is projecting 50% probability of Dec'15 hike and Fed Dot Plot is showing little aggressive Fed movements in the days ahead. Although there is some probability that Fed may hike in Dec'15 or by Mar'16, 0.25-0.50% will be the maximum scenario until 2017-18!! Near zero interest is the new normal now.
SGX NF hit a high of around 8050 in the after noon yesterday as some Fed talks were leaked (??) early; now trading around 7965.
Early Asian market is trading on the neutral zone expect Japan, which is down by around 1.5% as of now, mat be because of stronger yen.
Possibility of early RBI action (rate cut) is there (even before 29-th Sep).
Technically, for NF today, 7935-7880-7815 should provide good support and below that came 7760-7715.
On the upside, sustain above 7935, immediate target should be 8000-8075 & 8125-81200 today/next few days.
As FII seems to be still in some short position in FNO, market may came down to some extent today and buy on dips may work in the short to medium term.
A dovish/hawkish hold by Fed, also underlines lack of confidence of Fed on US/global economy and the same Fed lift off uncertainty will be there in the days ahead---in that sense this total Fed drama might be turned as a pure non-event too. Market will concentrate on other factors like China, RBI action etc.
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