Nifty Fut (Sep) today closed
around 8817 (-0.22%) after making an opening session high of
8855 and day low of 8791.
Looking at the chart, now
sustaining below 8780-8755* area, NF may fall towards
8700-8665/45-8560* and 8525-8460*-8335 zone in the immediate
to short term.
On the other side,
sustaining above 8855-8875* area, NF may gain further strength
for a rally towards 8925-8945/75*-9015 and 9075*-9125-9185
zone in the immediate to short term.
Overall for NF, 8875-8755
is the key levels one may watch for immediate trading
direction.
Today morning Asian session
was tepid on the back of overnight weak US market led by better
than estimated ADP job data (as of now, any good US economic
data is bad for risk assets & vice-versa for hawkish tone of
Fed/ talk of rate hike).
Also Crude oil was under
pressure for renewed inventory build up and fear of supply glut,
despite OPEC jawboning about production freeze/cut.
Chinese MFG PMI data (both
official/Govt and Caixin) came above 50 boom/bust line today for
the 1-st time in three months which may be an indication that
China is recovering slowly. But Chinese market closed in negative
as better economic data may also force PBOC to inject less stimulus
there. Also, the Aug PMI data may be fulled by credit & Govt stimulus and may be at the higher end of the curve.
In EU session, today's UK
PMI data was simply blockbuster at 53.3 against consensus of 49
(prior: 48.3). This is also an indication that UK has benefited
most from the GBP devaluation led by Brexit uncertainty
(backdoor QE). But, a strong GBP may also cause some selling in FTSE today.
In the EU, Germany may be the
worst affected due to Brexit as their export has suffered
significantly due to weak GBP (down by almost 12% from Pre-Brexit
level). This basically means that the UK is enjoying the both sides
of remaining in the EU, while at the same times, its MFG sector
is taking huge benefit for the depreciated GBP.
Now its almost certain that
EU/Germany will not allow UK to be in the EU with a significant
devalued currency (GBP). Thus, UK will be forced to take a final
decision regarding real Brexit (Exit from EU) sooner rather than
later and as par various reports, UK will not need any
parliamentary approval for invocation of article-50 and Brexit
will be a reality soon (even before 2019).
Global market is not
discounted for real Brexit and some how, investors are quite
complacent about the notion that, eventually UK will not exit EU
at any costs. Any meaningful indication about real Brexit may
cause another round of headwinds for global as well as Indian
market.
Apart form this renewed
Brexit concern, all eyes will be on China Yuan devaluation
probability after G-20 meet ends by this weekend, Oil and US NFP
data tomorrow.
Today's overall US economic data (ISM MFG, Construction spending, MFG PMI, Auto Car Sales) are somewhat below consensus and that's causing a moderate USD selling just before the NFP tomorrow (consensus 180k, avg hourly earnings 0.2%, unemployment rate 4.8%).
Back to home, Indian market
was opened in a flattish note on the back of yesterday's tepid
macro data (GDP/Core Industrial output/Fiscal Deficit). But
better than expected Nikkei MFG PMI data (52.6 against consensus
of 52; prior 51.8) for Aug supported the market to some extent.
This is the fastest PMI rise since mid-2015 supported by surge
in new orders amid modest increase in prices/pricing power.
Also, though GDP came at
7.1%, much below than estimate of 7.6%, GVA was better at 7.2%
and also in line with estimates. The divergence in GDP & GVA
was basically for decline in indirect tax revenue factor.
Apart from macros, all eyes
was today on the much hyped RIL AGM, in which it announced
commercial (?) launch of R-JIO on 5-th Sep with a significant
low price & plan (apparently) as expected. This caused a
huge blow to other telecom scrips such as Bharti Airtel (-6%)
& Idea (-10%) on the fear of price competition/more cuts and
pressure of forthcoming telecom spectrum auction.
Later RIL came also under
selling pressure as lower tariffs in its telecom venture will
ultimately dent its bottom line. As par some reports, R-JIO
venture may drag RIL's EPS by around 5-15% in the first few
years of operation and only after 3-5 years, breakeven may come.
As par some SOTP calculation, R-JIO may drag RIL price by around
260/- par share in the short to medium term.
RIL is also not ready to withdraw the KG6 arbitration against the Govt contrary to earlier report. This may also deprive it to get the market price of its Natural Gas as par Govt policy (any producer of oil & gas will have to withdraw arbitration or any other legal case against the Govt's oil & gas policy, before eligible for market price of the same).
Nifty was further dragged
today by cement scrips (between 1-5%) after CCI imposed huge penalty
on them; but eventually, they will contest it in appropriate legal forum as
expected and subsequently recovered from the day low.
Asian Paints & Adani
Ports were under selling pressure as there was some reports that
promoters has pledged significant quantity of shares.
Banks today supported the
overall market quite significantly as there was some buzz of RBI's
new guidelines of stressed assets management and it came true after the market hour.
Although yesterday's drat proposal of 75% disbursal for the infra and construction companies also helped the market, telecom stress may drag some of the private banks too, who has significant exposoure to the stressed telecom sector (Indusind & Yes Bank).
Also decent growth in Aug
auto sales helped the market to some extent today.
Overall, tomorrow being the
last day of Rajan as RBI Gov and coupled with that the long
weekend factor, market may be cautious ahead of US NFP data and some long unwinding may happen too.
SGX-NIFTY
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