Nifty plunged Tuesday on higher USD after Indian Finance Ministry comments; surging oil also dragged

The Indian market (Nifty Fut-I/India-50) closed around 11318 Tuesday, plunged by almost -0.78% in late hours trade on higher USD after Indian Finance Ministry officials’ comments that they see rupee at 72-73 against the US dollar as “fair value” and 10Y bond yield at near 8% “could attract more capital inflows”. The Indian Finance Ministry “sources” also reportedly said rupee should not fall more than 2% (from present level) against the US dollar and rupee could come under pressure again once new US sanctions against Iran come into force.

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Technical View:

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11400 for a further rally to 11430/11460 and only sustaining above 11460, it could further rally to 11515/11535 and 11580/11605-11650/11680 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11380, NF may fall to 11315/11280-11260/11230 and only sustaining below 11260, it could further plunge to 11180/11130-11050/10950 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 26650 for a further rally to 26850-27050 and only sustaining above 27050, it could further rally to 27300-27550 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 26600, BNF may fall to 26500 and only sustaining below 26500 BNF could further fall to 26250-26100 and further 26000/25800-25650/25500 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 72.70-73.05 for a further rally to 73.25/73.75-74.25/74.45 and 75.00-75.65 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 72.40, USDINR-I may fall to 72.15/71.95-71.50/71.25 and 70.90/70.50-70.00/69.75 and further up to 69.15 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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BANK NIFTY-BNF

USDINR-I

USDJPY

EURUSD

GBPUSD

Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 14/09/2018

On Friday, the Indian market soared on lower USDINR amid lower US dollar index, ease of EM currency jitters after Turkey raised 1-week repo rate more than expected, lower Indian CPI and hopes of some government action to ease pressure on rupee in an economic preview meeting to be chaired by the Indian Prime Minister Modi (on Saturday).

There are various proposals to strengthen rupee (INR), such as NRI bond (Indian version of IMF proxy at times of FX crisis), FCNR window, USD SWAP window for OMC/oil importers to even a pre-emptive RBI rate hike. Some fall in oil is also helping the Indian market coupled with positive global cues amid hopes of US-China trade truce despite ongoing Trump tantrum.

Updated: 13:30

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11525 (+112; +0.98%)             

Bank Nifty-BNF: 27218 (+240; +0.90%)

SPX-500: 2910 (+5; +0.17%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11490*/11475-11450/11425-11370/11330-11295/11265

Resistance to NF:

11550*/11580-11605/11625-11675/11695-11725/1177

Support for BNF:

27200/26900*-26750/26500-26400/26150-26050/25800

Resistance to BNF:

27300/27400*-27500/27700-27850/28000-28100/28200

Support for USDINR-I:

72.00/71.50*-71.00/70.40-70.10/69.85/69.15

Resistance to USDINR-I:

72.55/72.85*-73.00/73.25-74.45/75.65-77.45/79.70

Support for SPX-500:

2880*/2860-2835/2800-2790/2770-2745/2700

Resistance to SPX-500:

2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11550 for a further rally to 11580/11605-11625/11675-11695/11725 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11530 NF may fall to 11490/11475-11450/11425-11370/11330 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 27400 for a further rally to 27500/27700-27850/28000-28100/28200 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27350-27300 BNF may fall to 27200/26900-26750/26500-26400/26150 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 72.00 for a further rally to 72.55/72.85-73.00/73.25-74.45/75.65 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 71.50, USDINR-I may fall to 71.00/70.40-70.10/69.85/69.15 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over SPX-500 has to sustain over 2925 for a further rally to 2940/2960 and 2990/3010-3035/3070 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2915-2895, SPX-500 may fall to 2880-2860 and only sustaining below 2860, SPX-500 could further fall to 2835/2800-2790/2770 and 2745-2700 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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US DOLLAR INDEX-USDX

 BANK NIFTY-BNF

Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 11/09/2018

On Tuesday, the Indian market continues under stress amid pressure on Indian rupee and bonds due to higher oil, widening CAD, fiscal deficit, surging bond yields and growing political and public agony over the issues of higher fuel prices, lower domestic currency and surging imported/domestic inflation, which could have a ripple effect in the forthcoming general election. The USDINR is now eyeing 75-80 levels and caught the attention of global FX traders amid EM currency rout. The RBI as-well-as the government could be helpless in such a situation. 

After Japan, Trump may eye India for his next candidate of trade negotiation. Indian techs and pharma export could be targeted by Trump with an eye on Indian currency, which devalued over 7200% in the last 70 years (since independence-1947).

Updated: 13:30

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11445 (-40; -0.38%)                

Bank Nifty-BNF: 27365 (+30; +0.12%)

SPX-500: 2881 (+1; +0.03%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11425*/11400-11370/11345*-11305/11240-11170/11090

Resistance to NF:

11475/11515*-11535/11580*-11605/11625-11660/11695

Support for BNF:

27200*/26900-26750*/26500-26400/26150-26050/25800

Resistance to BNF:

27500*/27700-27850*/28000-28100/28200-28350/28450

Support for USDINR-I:

72.00/71.50-71.00/70.40-70.10/69.85/69.15

Resistance to USDINR-I:

72.55/72.85-73.00/73.25-74.45/75.65-77.45/79.70

Support for SPX-500:

2880*/2860-2835/2800-2790/2770-2745/2700

Resistance to SPX-500:

2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11535 for a further rally to 11580/11605-11625/11660-11695/11725 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11515-11475 NF may fall to 11425/11400-11370/11345-11305/11240 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 27550 for a further rally to 27700/27850-28000/28100-28200/28350 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27500-27450 BNF may fall to 27200/26900-26750/26500-26400/26150 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 72.00 for a further rally to 72.55/72.85-73.00/73.25-74.45/75.65 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 71.50, USDINR-I may fall to 71.00/70.40-70.10/69.85/69.15 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over SPX-500 has to sustain over 2910 for a further rally to 2925 and only sustaining above 2925, SPX-500 could further rally to 2940/2960 and 2990/3010-3035/3070 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2895-2880, SPX-500 may fall to 2860 and only sustaining below 2860, SPX-500 could further fall to 2835/2800-2790/2770 and 2745-2700 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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USDINR-I

USDJPY

Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 10/09/2018

On Monday, the Indian market slumped by plunging rupee (INR) on lingering concern about the current account deficit, Trump trade rhetorics on China as-well-as India coupled with Moody’s warning for a weaker rupee for India’s corporate, although the overall corporate impact may be limited. USDINR soared despite talk of NRI bonds and issue of FPIs resolved (SEBI circular). The dual combination of a falling rupee and higher oil is proving lethal for the Indian economy and the market.

Updated: 12:30

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11490 (-143; -1.22%)               

Bank Nifty-BNF: 27295 (-295; -1.10%)

SPX-500: 2878 (+3; +0.10%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11460/11425*-11400/11370-11345/11305-11240/11170

Resistance to NF:

11535/11580*-11605/11625-11660/11695-11725/11775

Support for BNF:

27300/27200*-26950/26850-26700/26600-26400/26150

Resistance to BNF:

27500/27700*-27850/28000-28100/28200-28350/28450

Support for USDINR-I:

72.00/71.50-71.00/70.40-70.10/69.85/69.15

Resistance to USDINR-I:

72.55/72.85-73.00/73.25-74.45/75.65-77.45/79.70

Support for SPX-500:

2880*/2860-2835/2800-2790/2770-2745/2700

Resistance to SPX-500:

2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11535 for a further rally to 11580/11605-11625/11660-11695/11725 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11515 NF may fall to 11460/11425-11400/11370-11345/11305 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 27550 for a further rally to 27700/27850-28000/28100-28200/28350 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27500 BNF may fall to 27300/27200-26950/26850-26700/26600 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 72.00 for a further rally to 72.55/72.85-73.00/73.25-74.45/75.65 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 71.50, USDINR-I may fall to 71.00/70.40-70.10/69.85/69.15 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over SPX-500 has to sustain over 2910 for a further rally to 2925 and only sustaining above 2925, SPX-500 could further rally to 2940/2960 and 2990/3010-3035/3070 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2895-2880, SPX-500 may fall to 2860 and only sustaining below 2860, SPX-500 could further fall to 2835/2800-2790/2770 and 2745-2700 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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NIFTY-SGX-NF

BANK NIFTY-BNF

USDJPY

Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 07/09/2018

On Friday, the Indian market is being helped by hopes of SEBI-NRI/FPI circular withdrawal/modification, China’s trade war pain (which is India’s gain), and lower oil. But lingering pressure on rupee may also keep the market in check, although RBI may issue NRI bonds for $30-35B to ease pressure on the rupee.

Updated: 13:30

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11590 (+22; +0.20%)              

Bank Nifty-BNF: 27482 (-98; -0.36%)

SPX-500: 2877 (-2; -0.07%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11605/11580*-11520/11500-11475/11440-11400/11345

Resistance to NF:

11625/11660-11695/11725-11775/11805-11825/11875

Support for BNF:

27400/27300*-27200/26850-26700/26600-26400/26150

Resistance to BNF:

27700/27850*-28000/28100-28200/28350-28450/28550

Support for USDINR-I:

70.75/70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85

Resistance to USDINR-I:

71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75-73.00/73.25

Support for SPX-500:

2880*/2860-2835/2800-2790/2770-2745/2700

Resistance to SPX-500:

2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11625 for a further rally to 11660/11695-11725/11775-11805/11825 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11605-11580 NF may fall to 11520/11500-11475/11440-11400/11345 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 27700 for a further rally to 27850/28000-28100/28200-28350/28450 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27650 BNF may fall to 27400/27300-27200/26850-26700/26600 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 70.85 for a further rally to 71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 70.75, USDINR-I may fall to 70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over SPX-500 has to sustain over 2910 for a further rally to 2925 and only sustaining above 2925, SPX-500 could further rally to 2940/2960 and 2990/3010-3035/3070 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2895-2880, SPX-500 may fall to 2860 and only sustaining below 2860, SPX-500 could further fall to 2835/2800-2790/2770 and 2745-2700 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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