Bank Nifty (Aug): 18000-17900 Is Now Crucial For "Freedom" To Fly Towards 19280 Zone Again--Aug'30 GST, MAT & Rate Cut Hope May Help

Technical Charts:

Technical Analysis:

For BNF (LTP:18320), good support zone is now around 18000-17950 and sustain below that it may fall up to 17690-17595-17492-17285-17119 zone in the near future (bear case probability).

On the ascend, sustaining above 17950, immediate target will be 18215-18410-18581. Only consecutive closing above 18581, BNF might target 18626-18783-18840-19050 area & sustaining above that 19129-19194-19280 should be the target in the near term (bullish case probability).

Technical Trading Levels (Positional)

BNF-Aug	LTP	18320
SL=+/-	25 POINTS	FROM SLR
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	17950		18215-410	18581-626*	18783-840	19050-129	19194-280	<17950
Weak <	17900		17690	17595*	17492	17285	17119	>18000

Some Rationale:

As par reports and various market talks, Govt may reconvene a short parliament session on by Aug'30 to pass the GST bill. As now the Cong basically is in corner for its faulty stance on "Lalit Gate" and disruptions of parliament proceedings, its under huge pressure from all sides and might not pose so much problem in the passage of the GST bill to recover its lost image.

There are also some hope that Shah panel report of MAT will be published officially and Govt will take a stand partially for the FPI(s) in the SC also in this "hour of crisis" and there is high probability that RBI may act this time.

Globally, China choose to be in the middle path of Yuan devaluation after nearly 4.5% crash in the Yuan against the market expectation of 10%. But again, as par some estimates, 10% Yuan devaluation will affect only 0.01% growth in US, but the bigger concern might be in the over all commodity prices depression, disinflation and loosing of export advantage by some of the countries,like Germany. The current situation is also implying less probability for Sep or even Dec'15 Fed rate hike.

For us, excessive Yuan devaluation means more cheap Chinese exports, specially steel and cross currency headwinds for some companies like ADAG etc who took susbstantial loan in Yuan and then converted it in USD.