Nifty Fut(Sep):Sustaining Above 8190 Expect 8355-8525, Otherwise Think About 7600-7300---Dovish Fed/Stable Global Market & GST/Land Bill/Rate Cut Hope May Help

Nifty Fut: 8015 (LTP)

SGX NF: 7994 (LTP)

Trading Levels :

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	7994	-21
				NF-SEP	LTP			8015
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8030		8065-80	8125-65	8190-220*	8253-90	8325-55	<8010
Weak <	8010		7980-30	7905-880	7840-15*	7770-50	7710-660	>8030
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8030		8080	8165	8220*	8290	8355-85	<8010
Weak <	8010		7930	7880	7815*	7750	7660-10	>8030

Rationale:

S&P Future (US market) retraced from key resistance zone (1990-2020) on Friday after Fischer & Lockhart (FOMC member) was sounded more like hawkish and put Sep rate hike probability back on the table. This type of continuous verbal intervention by different FOMC members in a cyclical manner (dovish & hawkish-Fed drama) for the last few months is perhaps designed carefully to control of the USD movement (as par preferred range of Fed) without any real action. But having said that, low inflation, tepid global growth and specially China jitters may be some of the excuses for Fed to hold in the days ahead and will keep the suspense on towards Dec'15. Again, there will be US presidential election in Nov'16 and Fed might not choose to risk the US/global market in turmoil (for rate hike fear) and they may unleash another form of QE designed to stimulate real street by keeping stable the wall street. Ultimately, at the end of the day, no Govt will like to face the election on the back drop of a disorderly financial market and thus probability of Fed, being too much hawkish looks remote even in 2016 (maximum 0.25-0.50% rate hike from record low level of Fed rate-0.00-0.25% with lots of caveats !!).

Back home, we may see official announcement of GST parliament session and confirmation of Land bill issue. It appears that the Govt will accept the UPA version of the Land bill with some modifications and in turn UPA/Cong will support the GST bill (also with some modifications) for a win-win situation for both.

Also there will be rate cut hope and this time Rajan may choose for Pre Dewali gift in the last week of Sep (after seeing real Fed action on 17-th Sep) and might cut deeper @0.50% at one shot.

Technical Analysis & Charts:

EW analysis on daily chart suggests that we might be in B wave currently after extended/impulsive wave A and the projected target of B may be around 8165 (if not extended) and thereafter C wave target might be around 7660-7540 & 6500 (extended). 

We need a strong news flow like GST/Land Bill/RBI rate cut along with dovish Fed & stable China to break & sustain over 8190-8220 for 8355-8525 and higher.