Friday, 20 April 2018

Nifty jumped on renewed hopes of a partial rollback of RBI’s 1-day default norm and mixed global cues

Market Wrap: 19/04/2018

NSE-NF (April):10579 (+40; +0.38%)

NSE-BNF (April):25175 (+50; +0.20%)

SPX-500: 2693 (-16; -0.57%)

Market Mantra: 20/04/2018

Updated: 07:55

SGX-NF: 10555 (-24; -0.23%)

Expected BNF opening: 25110 (-0.25%)

SPX-500: 2695 (+2; +0.06%)

(Gap-down opening on subdued global/US cues amid surge in US bond yields on concern of higher inflation after surge in metals and oil; Fed may go for 4 rate hikes in 2018 in order to stay ahead of the inflation/Trumpflation curve; terrible result from some US consumer-staple companies have also affected the US sentiment along with techs for Apple woes)

March-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:


Resistance to NF:


Support for BNF:


Resistance to BNF:


Support for SPX-500:


Resistance to SPX-500:


Technical View (Positional-Nifty, Bank Nifty, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 10615 for a further rally towards 10655/10675-10725/10765-10815/10865 in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10595-10575 NF may fall towards 10510/10465-10430/10400-10370/10340 in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25500 for a further rally towards 25655/25775-25850/26050-26150/26300 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25450-25250, BNF may fall towards 25000/24900-24800/24600-24400/24250 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2730 for a further rally towards 2750/2765-2785/2805 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2720-2705, SPX-500 may fall towards 2680/2660-2635/2620 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 10565; Q2FY18 EPS: 410; Q2FY18 PE: 25.77; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

Bank Nifty: 25175; Q3FY18 EPS: 820; Q2FY18 PE: 30.70; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

The Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50) closed around 10579 on Thursday, jumped by almost 0.38% on renewed hopes of a partial rollback of RBI’s Feb 12 NPA circular (1-day default issue) and surge in metals, thanks to Trump’s sanctions on a Russian bellwether aluminum co. But overall global cues were muted on the sudden surge in bond yields as higher commodity prices (metals/oil) may boost up inflation and Fed may also go for 4 rate hikes in 2018 in order to stay ahead of the inflation (Trumpflation) curve.

Indian government pitched for 1-year relaxation on RBI’s 1-day default rule:

Nifty Future made an opening minute high of around 10586 and midday low of 10550 in a day of range bound trading amid mixed corporate earnings. As par report, the Indian government has conveyed Banks and stakeholders’ concerns for the Feb 12 NPA, especially the 1-day default norms for any reconsideration. But the government has also pointed out that it’s up to the RBI to decide any changes in its Feb 12 circular as RBI is the sole authority to decide on NPA norms.

On Wednesday, the Indian market slid on comments by one of the deputy governor of RBI, who said the NPA norms notified by its Feb 12 circular is not changeable and defended the same on various grounds. The market is now expecting some leniency on the part of RBI after the government “conveyed” the concern of the banks and the big corporate borrowers to the RBI.

As par report, the government seeks a relaxation of RBI's revised framework for bad loan resolution just a day after RBI Dy Guv Vishwanathan defended the new rules. The government says the new framework is causing "serious problems" for industry & banks.

Power minister RK Singh hits out at the RBI's new bad loan resolution rules, calls it "impractical" and demands changes. He said RBI's circular on NPAs which was issued on Feb 12 is “impractical” & "not workable” as RBI can’t drive someone who is sneezing to sickness; Finance Ministry says circular is a “serious problem”, 1-day default norm needs relaxation. He further added banking department & RBI will meet soon on the 1-day default clause.

Former RBI DG Mundra says there is room for “flexibility” without compromising on the intent of the Feb 12th Feb NPA Circular; 1-day default norm can be rolled out gradually. As par PNB, almost 85% of the standard loan accounts have a default rate of 1 day and above, but below 30 days.

As par some government official, the 1-day default period needs to be extended to 30 days for 1 year; default timeline should kick in 30 days after missing payment of principal/interest. Government Official says the government is in favor of relaxing 1-day default rule for 1 year as RBI's Feb 12 NPA circular a 'serious problem' for industry & banks. As par government estimate, banks need to provide almost Rs.1.25 trillion as a result of this 1-day default norm, with Power Discoms and PSUs will be the worst hit.

As a result, the government is seeing a slump in credit growth if RBI’s 1-day default norm is implemented and subsequently industry/economy will suffer. Thus RBI should reconsider their stance and give “breathing space” while managing the NPA/NPL.

But RBI may want global standards in managing NPA/NPL, where even a 1-day delay or miss in payments may be treated as a “default”. Thus, Indian corporates may have to also arrange funds in advance to pay for the loan obligation as par standard global practices, if RBI stays firm on their stance.

Some selected banks also buoyed by another report that PNB will pay around $700 million worth of LOUs to various Banks in next 2 days, whereas it will pay the remaining $240 million by May-end in the Nirav Modi case. PNB has to sell its Mumbai HQ building for Rs.700 billion to settle the Nirav Modi NPA with other banks

But higher oil was a drag also for the Indian market and OMCs (oil marketing companies) came under severe stress as they are unable to hike retail prices as the government is not allowing them to do so ahead of series of elections. Thus there is a concern of political populism, which may affect also the fiscal discipline.

RBI looks quite hawkish in its April minutes:

After the market hours, RBI released its April minutes, which may be termed as hawkish. RBI is clearly concerned about the higher trajectory of the core inflation hovering above 5% for the last few quarters, which is far more than its medium-term target of 4%. One of the MPC member and the deputy governor Viral Acharya looked quite hawkish as he may vote for a rate hike in next June meeting if core inflation does not fall in the coming days. RBI Deputy Governor Viral Acharya says “moved closer to start of the withdrawal of accommodation”.

RBI Governor Patel says he wants to wait for more data to see how CPI risks evolve. Higher capacity utilization suggests stronger manufacturing sector. Patel sees clearer signs of a revival of investment activity.

There was also a huge concern about NPA resolution pace at NCLT (courts) amid increasing litigations and red tapes. SBI Chairman says there is a huge delay in getting judgments in many NCLT cases as legal proceedings are miserably slow in the Indian judicial system.

On Thursday, Nifty was helped by VEDL, L&T, Hindalco, ITC, TCS (earnings optimism), Yes Bank, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, RIL (big capex by its partner BP), Infy and others by around 76 points (56+20), while it was dragged by HDFC, IOL, BPCL, HPCL, Axis Bank, Titan, Maruti, Indusind Bank (muted report card), Bajaj Fin, Asian paints and others by almost 37 points (32+5) cumulatively.

Overall on Thursday, the Indian market was helped by metals (higher global prices), techs, mixed banks, automobiles, FMCG, media, pharma, reality, consumption, infra, and MNC, while dragged by financials, OMC (higher oil). Exporters (techs/pharma/MNC) were upbeat on higher USD.

Global cues were mixed during Indian market hours on Thursday:

US stock future (SPX-500) was down by 0.18% and European stocks were down by 0.05%.  Higher interest rates (bond yields) were undercutting stocks as the 10Y US bond yield rose to a 4-week high of 2.914% and the 10Y German bund yield climbed to a 4-week high of 0.596%. An increase in inflation expectations was boosting government bond yields as the 10Y T-note breakeven inflation rate climbed to a 3-1/2 year high of 2.16% due to the recent surge in metals and energy prices. 

But, strength in energy stocks was also limiting the downside in US and European bourses WTI/crude oil was up by 0.54% at a new 3-1/3 year high. Oil prices were extending gains from Wednesday after the EIA reported a surprise drop in weekly US crude inventories. Oil prices are also moving higher ahead of Friday's OPEC meeting in Saudi Arabia where the cartel may signal an extension of their production cuts past this year amid Saudi jawboning, wishing $80-100 for Brent crude.

Asian stocks closed higher: Japan +0.15%, Hong Kong +1.40%, China +0.84%, Taiwan +1.14%, Australia +0.33%, Singapore +1.15%, South Korea +0.46%, India +0.28% (Sensex). Asian stocks were higher across the board following the mostly positive lead from the overnight US market, where earnings remained in focus and the energy sector outperformed after crude rallied over 3% to its highest since 2014.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rallied to a 1-1/2 month high as trade tensions eased when US President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe agreed to work closely on bilateral trade and was also led higher by metal stocks and in tandem with a weaker currency (Yen).

US President Trump said he will shrink the US trade deficit with Japan and hopefully, a balance will be reached, while he later stated that they are negotiating a one-on-one trade deal with Japan. There were also comments from Japanese PM Abe that he agreed with US President Trump to begin discussions on fair, free and reciprocal trade, while he also commented that TPP is the best trade deal for both Japan and US.

ASX-200 was lifted by commodity names as miners outperformed amid strength in metals prices, which also boosted BHP shares despite a disappointing quarterly iron ore production update.

Hang Seng and Shanghai conformed to the commodity-led gains with the blue-chip energy stocks in Hong Kong cheering the higher oil prices and with sentiment also helped by another firm liquidity operation by the PBOC. The PBOC injected CNY 190 bln via 7-day reverse repos. Also, materials and financials have helped the China market on Thursday.

European stocks struggled for traction following two days of gain and in the wake of a mixed bag of corporate earnings, even after shares in Asia rose following gains from the prior day. FTSE-100 edged up on exporters/MNC amid a slump in GBP after subdued UK economic data (CPI/retail sales/wage growth).





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