Technical Outlook For Nifty Fut(NSE-SEP):1-5 days

Technically, Nifty Fut has to sustain now above 8175-8203 zone for further up move to 8450-8500 zone.

On the downside, 8080 zone is now intermittent support & 8027-8003 zone is positional support, sustaining below which we could see 7936 zone.

 

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8139	27
				NF-SEP	LTP	8112
	SL >/< 5 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8120		8155-8175	8203-8232*	8269-8300	<8100
Weak <	8100		8070-8050	8027-8003*	7978-7936	>8120
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	SLR
Strong >	8120		8175	8232*	8300	<8100
Weak <	8100		8050	8003*	7936	>8120

Notes:

In the domestic front, all eyes will be on Tuesday (9-th  Sep), when SC may deliver its final judgement on coal mines (Banking sector likely to be affected along with power/steel/coal sector because some banks may have substantial exposoure in these sectors). But I personally feel that there will be no further adverse judgement to cripple these vital sectors & sufficient time will be given to the Govt. for "rectification" of the previous "illegal" coal mines allocation without affecting these vital sectors completely. There may be some specific company wise action, for which mining action is not started yet despite coal mines were allocated years ago. Even if there is some adverse judgement, Govt. may likely to take course of further legal remedies available in order to buy time to put in place its plan"B" for smooth coal supply. In case of complete deallocation of coal mines in some cases, end users may get coal from Coal India as suggested by petitioner's counsel (Coal India may see action).

After this Coal Mine fiasco, our market may look forward to the coming visit of Chinese President to India, when lots of infrastructure projects with billions of dollars of FDI may be announced. 

On the global front, there will be no dearth of liquidity in near future & Fed will be in no hurry to raise rate until June-2015 (with lots of caveats of course) & Draghi is ready with further stimulus, if required to devalue EURO in order to pop up sluggish EU economy.

Apart from fragile Ukraine ceasefire, market will look forward to Scottish referendum & US retail sales on Friday. Various data point out that US economy is now on the recovery mode and US SME(s), which are more closer to ground level , i.e. main street/real economy, are slowly shifting from cost cutting to fresh investment apart from their big brothers.

(Bottom line:Economic cycle is changing in US from cost cutting to expenditure & that is being largely driven by change in sentiment and not only by central banks & QE pumping; if this trend continues to improve, it will be where all the action for the US economy in the coming months).