Thursday 3 December 2015

Crompton Greaves: Has A Great Run Of Over 22% From Recent Low On The Back Of Demerger News---What's Next ?

Expect 230-250 only sustaining above 201-211 zone;
Otherwise, 177-164 again on the card, if sustain below 191-187


CMP: 197

Sell either below 198 or on rise around 203-208-211;

TGT: 187*-177-164* (1-2M)

TSL> 215

Note: Consecutive closing above 215 for any reason, CRG can move up to 220-230*-250 zone and in that alternative scenario, sell position may be reversed and wait for next heavy supply zones around 230-250 for further selling/appropriate strategy.  

CRG has a dream run from its recent low of around 164 on the back of de-merger news with its consumer products division (fans/lights/pumps etc). After de-merger, the company is expected to increase its footprint into other industrial appliances including switch-gear market.

Apart from this de-merger news, CRG has done a lots of de-leveraging/divestment in the last few months (land sale for Rs.490 cr; sale of Canada Power System at CAD 20 mln; exit from the distribution franchise in MH; stake sale in CG Lucy switch-gear ). 

Analysts are also expecting sell of its international power div and substantial reduction in consolidated debt (around Rs.2500 cr as on FY-15) to almost zero.

Current consolidated TTM EPS is around 2.30, while on standalone basis it comes to around 11.82. Analysts are excited about its standalone earnings potential after de-merger and has given "thumbs up" to the stock.

No doubt, CRG is a good stock and re-rating may be also on the card/happening on the back of de-merger/leverage news flow. 

But considering the recent rally for the stock, and time & price action on technical chart, the above positive sets of news flow might be already discounted by the market to a great extent and the scrip may face strong supply pressure around 201-211 zone and in that scenario, buy on dips around 177-164 area may be safe for better portfolio return.

To be cont for more news & analytical inputs----

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