Nifty Fut(Dec): Ahead Of Fed & GST----What's Next ?

For NF, 7540-7425 is big support zone; 

Sustain below 7425, expect 7240-6900;

Otherwise rally towards 7800-8000 is on the card again

Fed & GST hope can help----

Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (Dec)

SGX NF: 7550 (CMP)

NSE-NF: 7628

	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
For	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	7520		7595-645*	7690-725	7779-800*	7855-900	7945-8005	<7500
Weak <	7500		7465-425*	7400-330	7275-240*	7150-050	6984-6899	>7520
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	7520		7645*	7725	7800*	7900	8005-8120	<7500
Weak <	7500		7425*	7330	7240*	7050	6899-6780	>7520

All eyes will be on political logjam on GST this week. 

As par reports, GST bill may be tabled in RS on tomorrow (15-th Dec) and Cong reportedly assured Govt for smooth functioning of LS/RS from today. Our FM may meet Cong leaders this evening for a discussion and passage of GST within this week (even it may be open ended regarding final rate & some other aspects) as winter session will end on 23-rd Dec.

For Cong, it seems that, they have now no alternative except support for passage of GST and in the process, it will try to restore some of its lost image. Cong is now basically in the corner for this GST bill issue as all other "oppositions" are now openly supporting it, seeing the clear public support & mood for it. 

Most probably, Cong will support the GST in a direct or indirect way (by abstain from voting in RS for "protest against NH/intolerance" etc ) and then face the SC an for interim relief for this NH case (as after the last week's drama in LS/RS in the NH issue & some public comments against Judiciary, it may be backfired to them as LS/RS is not the place for fighting/defending a court case and, as our FM rightly pointed out that SC/Trial Court is the best place for any remedy).

In any way, Cong also pointing out that under UPA, its BJP, who blocked this GST for ten years in LS and they are also quite right. Also, they are pointing out that RSS & some BJP fractions are itself against GST and thus Govt is not so serious about it as its seemed.

This may be partly true as Govt is so serious about GST & other important bills, then it could easily convene a joint session of Parliament for passage of the same, irrespective of thinking of any political turmoil in previous occasions.

Going forward, our political system may be a real cause of concern for passage & effective implementations of various reforms in our country & it may cast some shadow on our overall ratings.

Passage of GST bill is important for our market sentiment and practically, even its passed now, it may not be possible to implement it by Apr'16 and it may take at least Oct'16 or even Apr'17 for the same. So, GST may not be a game changer in the near term and its effect will reflect in our economy only after 2/3 years of actual implementation &  passage of GST will not improve the earnings of our corporates overnight either !!

Though its almost certain that Fed will act this time by lifting rate at least 0.25%, as par some reports, Fed may also surprise the market on Dec-16 for various reasons such as junk bond defaults and oil worries. 

In any way, "one & off" Fed hike (0.25-0.50%) by Dec'15- Apr'16 is almost discounted and if its not so hawkish about future FFR, then expect a relief rally in the market after some whipsaw as by this Fed hike, a great element of uncertainty may be removed. If Fed does not act for any reason this time, market may also fire up initially and then again fall as the same uncertainty will return again.  

Technically, NF has good support in 7540-7425 zone and it may be in corrective Wave-A in daily EW cycle, the target of which is around 7550 zone. Thus buy on dips in this zone may not be a bed idea for target of 7800-8000 zone in the near term.

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