Nifty Fut (Aug) closed
today around 8654 (+0.15%) after making a session high of 8668
& low of 8617 (opening high of around 8683 may be an act of
fat finger).
Looking ahead, sustaining below 8630-8590* area, NF/NS may fall towards 8530-8480*-8440 area immediately.
On the other side, sustaining above 8675-8700* area, NF/NS may target the zone of 8745-8765/85*-8825 immediately.
Positionally, sustaining below 8590-8480 zone NF/NS may target 8340-8270 area and consecutive closing (3 days) above 8715-8765 area, it may rally towards 8950-9015 zone in the short term.
Today there was not much global cues except, some early safe heaven flows after North Korea fired a test missile into Japan air defence zone for the first time and Turkey invaded Syrian border to combat ISIS. All these may be again reminding that geo-political tension is still there in the emerging markets and along with selling in oil (as US inventory is rising again and China cut imports and clamping down on some zombie refineries for tax issues despite talk of OPEC output freeze), global markets was largely range bound.
All eyes are now on the Friday's Yellen comment about strength of US economy & headwinds of global economy and any clarity (?) about Fed rate hike.
Back to the Indian market, although there was some concern about Govt's reported move to amend the Singapore tax treaty, nothing has happened (may be we will see some clarity & action after expiry tomorrow).
Another important development is that IMD revised its 2016 monsoon forecast to normal (100% of LPA) against earlier forecast of excess (106% of LPA) as possibility of La-Lina fades.
But, this revised forecast was already there in the market predicted by Sky Met and market has also discounted a good monsoon this year (food inflation may dip in Aug-Sep and rural economy may revive).
Going ahead, CPI trend in the coming months will dictate any RBI repo rate cut (0.25%) either by Dec'16 (low probability) or by Feb'17 (high probability).
As festival season will start and there will be 7-CPC induced liquidity, market is expecting uptick in consumer spending, specially on the discretionary sides and automobiles.
As par reports, Govt may appoint its three MPC members before Oct-4th RBI policy meet; but before that market will keenly watch Patel commentary about India's inflation trajectory, resolution of pain of twin balance sheets, forthcoming FCNR redemption pressure (around $15 bln) on INR etc.
Incidentally, S&P & also RBI today raised some concern also on incremental nature of India's banking NPLS. Outgoing RBI Gov (Rajan), also expressed some concern about growing tendency of the banks providing personal loans to the retail borrowers to make up for the deficiency in business/corporate loans and another retail loan bubble may be forming in the Indian banking system (although recently SBI chairperson has refuted this apprehension strongly).
After market hours today, NAMO Govt approved huge infra spending in rail ways, road projects and we may see some action in the related stocks tomorrow.
Today, Nifty was supported by Auro Pharma (above estimate Q1 result and positive management commentary despite some apprehension about balance sheet debt level and EIR by US FDA), Maruti (incremental growth in sales in the coming festival season, coupled with expected 7-CPC liquidity and lower exposoure to Yen & better FCF) and Infy (City bank digital project bidding probability).
Nifty was dragged today by Idea (denial of any Vodafone merger talk as reported yesterday), Lupin, Ambuja Cement, Tata Motors & Tata Steel.
We may see some action after expiry tomorrow (65% rollover as of yesterday) & Friday's Yellen speech. Hopefully, Nifty will see some action from next week onwards after the narrow range consolidation (small triangle beak out or break down) for the last few days.
Looking ahead, sustaining below 8630-8590* area, NF/NS may fall towards 8530-8480*-8440 area immediately.
On the other side, sustaining above 8675-8700* area, NF/NS may target the zone of 8745-8765/85*-8825 immediately.
Positionally, sustaining below 8590-8480 zone NF/NS may target 8340-8270 area and consecutive closing (3 days) above 8715-8765 area, it may rally towards 8950-9015 zone in the short term.
Today there was not much global cues except, some early safe heaven flows after North Korea fired a test missile into Japan air defence zone for the first time and Turkey invaded Syrian border to combat ISIS. All these may be again reminding that geo-political tension is still there in the emerging markets and along with selling in oil (as US inventory is rising again and China cut imports and clamping down on some zombie refineries for tax issues despite talk of OPEC output freeze), global markets was largely range bound.
All eyes are now on the Friday's Yellen comment about strength of US economy & headwinds of global economy and any clarity (?) about Fed rate hike.
Back to the Indian market, although there was some concern about Govt's reported move to amend the Singapore tax treaty, nothing has happened (may be we will see some clarity & action after expiry tomorrow).
Another important development is that IMD revised its 2016 monsoon forecast to normal (100% of LPA) against earlier forecast of excess (106% of LPA) as possibility of La-Lina fades.
But, this revised forecast was already there in the market predicted by Sky Met and market has also discounted a good monsoon this year (food inflation may dip in Aug-Sep and rural economy may revive).
Going ahead, CPI trend in the coming months will dictate any RBI repo rate cut (0.25%) either by Dec'16 (low probability) or by Feb'17 (high probability).
As festival season will start and there will be 7-CPC induced liquidity, market is expecting uptick in consumer spending, specially on the discretionary sides and automobiles.
As par reports, Govt may appoint its three MPC members before Oct-4th RBI policy meet; but before that market will keenly watch Patel commentary about India's inflation trajectory, resolution of pain of twin balance sheets, forthcoming FCNR redemption pressure (around $15 bln) on INR etc.
Incidentally, S&P & also RBI today raised some concern also on incremental nature of India's banking NPLS. Outgoing RBI Gov (Rajan), also expressed some concern about growing tendency of the banks providing personal loans to the retail borrowers to make up for the deficiency in business/corporate loans and another retail loan bubble may be forming in the Indian banking system (although recently SBI chairperson has refuted this apprehension strongly).
After market hours today, NAMO Govt approved huge infra spending in rail ways, road projects and we may see some action in the related stocks tomorrow.
Today, Nifty was supported by Auro Pharma (above estimate Q1 result and positive management commentary despite some apprehension about balance sheet debt level and EIR by US FDA), Maruti (incremental growth in sales in the coming festival season, coupled with expected 7-CPC liquidity and lower exposoure to Yen & better FCF) and Infy (City bank digital project bidding probability).
Nifty was dragged today by Idea (denial of any Vodafone merger talk as reported yesterday), Lupin, Ambuja Cement, Tata Motors & Tata Steel.
We may see some action after expiry tomorrow (65% rollover as of yesterday) & Friday's Yellen speech. Hopefully, Nifty will see some action from next week onwards after the narrow range consolidation (small triangle beak out or break down) for the last few days.
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