Wednesday, 31 August 2016

Nifty Closed Just Below 8800 Amid Mild Last Hour Selling After Reaching Fresh 52 Weeks High Ahead Of Indian GDP & US Job Data (ADP/NFP)

Nifty Fut (Sep) today closed around 8839 after reaching a fresh 52 weeks high of 8864 and an opening session low of 8789.

Technically speaking, now NF has to sustain above 8875-8895* zone for further strength towards 8925-8945/75*-9015 and 9075*-9125-9185 zone in the immediate to short term.

On the other side, sustaining below 8850-8815* zone, NF may fall towards 8755*-8690-8655/30 and 8560-8515-8435 area in the immediate to short term.

Overall, for tomorrow, one should watch 8875-8755 area in NF for a definitive movement of overall market in either direction.

Today global cues was tepid as there was broader USD strength on the back of better US economic data (consumer confidence at 11 months high). After recent spate of hawkish Fed statement, currently any good economic data for US may be translated as bad for risk assets (EQ/Gold/COMM) as probability of Fed rate hike will be higher.

Also in Japan, an economic advisor to PM (Abe) even spoke about a new QE idea that BOJ can purchase Foreign currency bond (??) as a strategy to devalue its own currency (Yen). 

As BOJ is increasingly short of eligible Japanese bonds for purchase, its desperate proposal/thinking about purchasing other currency bond may be interpreted as indirect intervention of other foreign currency. As a result, USD is getting more strong against JPY.

Along with the US Job data (ADP/NFP), market will keenly watch culmination of G-20 meet (China) in the weekend as fear of another bout of Yuan devaluation is rumoured by China this time.

Back to home, Indian market was opened today in a positive note after yesterday's Govt plan to release pending bonus for the last two years for the central Govt employees. 

The market got further boost after Govt announced another incremental reform policy for turnkey projects, earmarking release of 75% of Arbitration award to developers. This has caused significant rally in some of the infra & construction scrips (likely beneficiaries are HCC, Gamon, Simplex, NCC) and banks as banks may recover significant amount for its stressed assets accounts under the developers head.

But, its just a draft policy right now and going forward market will keenly watch the actual form and other fine prints, like more clarity on disbursals.
 
Today, Nifty got some support from Ultratech Cem (FII buying permission up to 30%), Kotak Bank (permission to Canadian Pension fund for stake buying between 5-10%), LT (Govt plan to release arbitration money as stated above), ZEEL (above expected amount for sports channel sale to Sony), Tata Motors (plan for domestic operations rejig).

Nifty was primarily dragged today by ONGC, Tata Steel/Hindalco (as steel & iron ore prices fall to 4 weeks low in China), RIL (adverse Shah committee report about Natural Gas dispute with ONGC).

After market hours, India today released its core sector output data (3.2% against 5.2% MOM), Fiscal deficit (almost 73.7% of FY-17) and Q1 GDP figure (7.1% against consensus of 7.6%; prior: 7.9%), which are both seems to be negative for the economy and the market.


 
SGX-NIFTY

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