Trading idea:Tata Motors
LTP: 515
Sell on rise around 515-525;
TGT: 475-430 (1-3M)
TSL> 530 (INTRA) OR >540 (POSITIONAL)
LTP: 515
Sell on rise around 515-525;
TGT: 475-430 (1-3M)
TSL> 530 (INTRA) OR >540 (POSITIONAL)
Note: Consecutive closing (3 days) above 540 zone, TM may further rally up to 575-615 zone in the near to long term (alternative bullish case scenario).
Any one holding long position in the counter or planning to do so, may watch 475 area as nearest positional support for the same.
Q1FY17 EBITDA of TATAMOTORS (TM) fall
drastically both on yearly and sequential basis and the overall
result is also far below market expectation. Only silverlining
is some growth in consolidated top line (revenue) and
stand-alone (India) performance, driven by PV & CV segment.
Recent launch of Tiago is also helping the domestic business of
TM quite well.
The primary reason behind the poor bottom line may be the forex loss (hedging) between different currencies (GBP/EUR/USD/INR). As a fallout of Brexit, GBP devalued significantly against USD in recent times by more than 12%. As par some analysts/investors, TM need to disclose more about its specific cross currency hedging rate to ascertain the future guidance and cross currency headwinds, where accounting is in GBP, sales in USD and sourcing in EUR (quite confusing & complicated).
Probability of "real Brexit" is getting stronger day by day and as par reports, UK Govt may not need Parliament approval for invoking the Article-50 and by 2019, it may exit from the EU. All eyes will be on a high court case hearing in Oct'16, where a case is pending for this issue of invocation process without Parliament approval.
Thus, all these uncertainty related to Brexit may affect sentiment, trade arrangement for UK and TM may also be adversely affected. In Q1FY17, there was FX impact of Rs.2296 cr and Comm derivatives impact of around Rs.167 cr. But, lower tax cost, JV profit share and insurance claim for Tianjin accident limited the overall impact on PAT this time.
On the other side, depreciated GBP may be also one of the reason for growth in sales volume of JLR (UK) and in China, there was some favourable product mix (JLR).
Although, domestically, TM may benefit from the proposed scrappage policy (old trucks & buses to be scraped first as par reports), actual benefit may be limited as for the last few years, lots of sales has already happened in the replacement market due to various regulatory obligations.
Moreover, domestic operations is a small part of overall TM balance sheet size and what matters most is the JLR performance.
Having said that, TM is certainly a great company for portfolio investment, but going by the recent rally of more than 95% in the last six months, the stock may be running ahead of its fundamentals (intrinsic value).
Going by the current market volatility and time & price action on TM, 525-535 may be a big technical hurdle for the scrip and in that scenario, buy on dips around 430-365 area may not be a bad idea for investment purpose.
The primary reason behind the poor bottom line may be the forex loss (hedging) between different currencies (GBP/EUR/USD/INR). As a fallout of Brexit, GBP devalued significantly against USD in recent times by more than 12%. As par some analysts/investors, TM need to disclose more about its specific cross currency hedging rate to ascertain the future guidance and cross currency headwinds, where accounting is in GBP, sales in USD and sourcing in EUR (quite confusing & complicated).
Probability of "real Brexit" is getting stronger day by day and as par reports, UK Govt may not need Parliament approval for invoking the Article-50 and by 2019, it may exit from the EU. All eyes will be on a high court case hearing in Oct'16, where a case is pending for this issue of invocation process without Parliament approval.
Thus, all these uncertainty related to Brexit may affect sentiment, trade arrangement for UK and TM may also be adversely affected. In Q1FY17, there was FX impact of Rs.2296 cr and Comm derivatives impact of around Rs.167 cr. But, lower tax cost, JV profit share and insurance claim for Tianjin accident limited the overall impact on PAT this time.
On the other side, depreciated GBP may be also one of the reason for growth in sales volume of JLR (UK) and in China, there was some favourable product mix (JLR).
Although, domestically, TM may benefit from the proposed scrappage policy (old trucks & buses to be scraped first as par reports), actual benefit may be limited as for the last few years, lots of sales has already happened in the replacement market due to various regulatory obligations.
Moreover, domestic operations is a small part of overall TM balance sheet size and what matters most is the JLR performance.
Having said that, TM is certainly a great company for portfolio investment, but going by the recent rally of more than 95% in the last six months, the stock may be running ahead of its fundamentals (intrinsic value).
Going by the current market volatility and time & price action on TM, 525-535 may be a big technical hurdle for the scrip and in that scenario, buy on dips around 430-365 area may not be a bad idea for investment purpose.
For Tata Motors: Q1FY17
(Consolidated)
EBITDA: Rs.7612.93 cr
against YOY:11006.80 & QOQ: 11387.17
PAT: 2260.40 against
estimates of 2695 (YOY: 5254.23; QOQ: 5177.06)
Revenue: 67056.10 against
estimate of 64755 (YOY: 61510.18; QOQ: 80684.41)
EPS: 6.67 against
consensus of around 7.95 (YOY:15.85; QOQ: 15.33)
Actual TTM EPS: 31.14
Projected FWD EPS: 37.75
(FY-17)
Average PE: 12
Present median valuation:
375
Projected fair valuation:
453 (FY-17)
Analytical Charts:
TATA MOTORS
TATAMOTORS
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