Nifty Fut (Oct) today closed
around 8650 (+0.14%) after a very range bound trading most of the day; It made
a session low of 8593 and high of 8669.
With this, Nifty closed the eventful
week led by Indian “Surgical Attack” on POK terror hubs by almost 2.55% lower
and gave 1-st weekly lower closure since Aug last week.
Looking ahead for Monday
(03/10/2016), technically NF need to sustain above 8675 zone for further rally
up to 8705/25-8755/85*-8815/75 zone in the immediate to short term.
On the other side,
sustaining below 8625 area, NF may fall towards 8560/30*-8470/40-8380/50 in the
immediate to short term.
Today Indian market opened
gap down by almost 50 points following overnight fall in US market triggered
mainly by concerns of the Deutsche Bank (DB) despite some rally in oil.
As par market talks, DB is
in serious capital problem as some prominent hedge funds/large derivative
traders are withdrawing cash from it and investors are also fast loosing faith.
But its not only DB, there are some other big banks in the docket like Credit
Suisse & Barclays for the US-DOJ fine issues.
Although both German
Govt & the DB management are denying any official talks of bail outs, its
hard to believe that DB, being the 4-th largest bank globally, will be
allowed to fall as it poses a systematic risk not only for Germany/EU, but also globally.
In the meanwhile, DB is
perusing various legal options & discussions for this lingering US-DOJ
issues and US-DOJ may eventually agree for smaller fines for all these banks as
a package considering the vital implications (both political & economical),
but investors in the meanwhile seems to be not taking any risk at such “Lehman
Moment” and abandoning the DB.
Also, there were some concerns about Saudi Arabia's financial health and proposed 9/11 incident sues by the US citizens; SWF may sell huge amount of US TSY, if this proposal goes on.
There were also some concerns about falling real estate prices in China, specially in smaller cities, where supply is much more than actual demand.
Amid these tepid global cues,
Indian market has its own concern for the ongoing Indo-Pak geo-political
tension.
After the “Surgical Attack”, it seems that it will be only “war of
words” keeping in view both the country’s domestic compulsion and pressure of
audience. All may depend upon the Pak’s Govt/Army's actual response in the days ahead as
India already described it as “one & off”.
But, there were still some concerns
among the market participants, as Indian Govt is taking some pre-cautionary
measures by emptying the Punjab border area with Pak and there are some increasing border
firing incidents (cease fire violations) in the last two days.
Apart from the global
concerns and geo-political tension, sentiment of the Indian market was
supported by the FM’s comments that Govt is on the right schedule to roll out
the GST by April’17.
Indian market will now focus
on the RBI meet (MPC), which will start from 3-rd Oct and RBI may publish the
policy/rate decision/comments at 14:30 in its website (like Fed of US). It’s
not clear that the new RBI Gov will address the press or attend the customary
Q&A session after the RBI policy or not.
Going by various analysts, now
almost 50% is expecting a 0.25% rate cut by RBI this time. Any disappointment
in this regard, may also dampen the sentiment of the market/rate sensitive
stocks by some extent as well.
Today Nifty was supported by
Oil & Gas (ahead of gas price decision by the Govt), PSBS (ahead of RBI
rate decision); but some selling pressure were seen in FMCG & HDFC twins, which capped the
upside of the overall market.
Broadly, midcaps over-performed well as usual.
Cipla today fall
significantly amid concern of US-FDA inspection reports. Some buying interest
was there in the liquor stocks, after Patna HC gave a stay on the Bihar’s
anti-liquor law.
Overall, if there is no
fresh geo-political tension (Indo-Pak) over the weekend and EU banking jitters,
Nifty may see some more short covering/value buying. Globally, all eyes
will be on the Yuan’s (China) inclusion in the SDR also on 1-st Oct.
Technically, watch NF level
of 8540-8675 for any decisive movement of the market.
Update: Overnight US market rallied nearly by 1% on the unconfirmed rumour that DB may have to pay only $5.4 bln as fine to the US-DOJ instead of earlier figure of $14bln. Market was expecting a figure of between $7-10 bln after negotiation ans subsequently DB rallied by around 14% from its life time low.
After this DB & other EU banking issues, global market may focus on the NFP data next week and ongoing US political battle, in order to assess Fed's probability of a Dec rate hike.
Oil was also under some selling pressure after 7% rally in the last two days because of unexpected OPEC deal in production cut. But, some sections of the market are also very skeptical about effectiveness of the OPEC agreement after Nov'16.
Domestically, India's fiscal deficit touched almost 76.4% of the FY-17 BE in the April-Aug periods, which may raise some concern (YOY:66.5%). All eyes will be on the Q2FY17 tax collection figure and the ongoing telecom spectrum auction.
Last minute rush yesterday for the Income Declaration Scheme (IDS) has put the amount to around Rs.65000 cr, which help the Govt to boost its tax coffers.
But, increasing amount of defense expenditure by India and geo-political tensions with Pak & China may be some of the concerns for fiscal deficit, going ahead. As par some reports, India may be now the biggest customer for defence related procurement ( arms & ammunition).
As par reports, till last week, telecos furnished a bank guarantee of around Rs.15000 cr, which is far below the Govt's BE of around Rs.1 lac cr. The burgeoning fiscal deficit may force the Indian Govt to cut infra capex in H2FY17 and may delay any immediate requirements of PSBS capital infusion requirements. One of the main reason behind the higher fiscal deficit may be 7-CPC pay outs with one time arrears and that may be viewed as "one time exceptional" by the market.
India yesterday reported a core sector output growth of 3.2% (Aug) against revised figure of 3% in July'16. The Aug growth was supported by surge in production of steel, fertilizers, cement, refinery products and partly by electricity. It was dragged by coal, crude oil and natural gas. Because of the old series, this core sector out put data may have little impact on the market, but it may give RBI some room to be on hold in Oct as well.
Unless, there is visible improvement in capacity utilization because of revival of consumer demand in an incremental way, India's problem of "twin balance sheet issues" may be unresolved in the days ahead. India's present capacity utilization may be now around 75% and unless dynamics of demand & supply matched, it may give some headwinds in the months ahead.
India yesterday cut in domestic Natural Gas price from $3.06 to $2.5/mmbtu in line with the average international price.The move may be slightly negative for scrips like ONGC, OIL. RIL and positive for IGL, GAIL.
SGX-NIFTY
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