Tuesday, 19 September 2017

Nifty May Open Edged Down ON Muted Global Cues Ahead Of Fed & BOJ And Increasing US-SK War Drill At Korean Peninsula; Indian Market May Focus On Scope Of Fiscal Stimulus Talks By The Govt To Revive The Economy



Market Mantra: 19/09/2017 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10160 (-19)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 10150-10090

Key resistance for NF: 10205-10250

Key support for BNF: 24950-24850

Key resistance for BNF: 25150-25250

Hints for positional trading:

Technicals indicate that, NF has to sustain over 10205 area for further rally towards 10250- 10325 & 10385-10455 area in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10185 area, NF may fall towards 10150-10090 & 10050-9995 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 25150 area for further rally towards 25250-25350 & 25585-25785 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25100-25050 area, BNF may fall towards 24950-24850 & 24700-24500 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Sep) may open around 10160, edged down by around 19 points tracking muted global cues as market may be cautious ahead of Fed & BOJ and on increasing US-SK war drills in the Korean peninsula to put “peaceful pressure campaign” on NK and elections in Germany & NZ this week coupled with a snap poll for JP next month

Yesterday US has also indicated that they have some war strategy that will prevent any cascading NK attack on SK in case of an war, without divulging much details about it. Market may be also worried about any drastic change in US policy under Trump for the Iran nuke deal and any trade war stance against China coupled with some optimism about US tax reform policy & Trump’s ability to pass his legislative agenda on the strength of his bipartisan stance.

Overnight US market closed in positive; DJ-30 gained by around 0.28%, S&P-500 was up by 0.15% to close around 2504 and NASDAQ edged up by 0.1%, helped primarily by banks on higher US bond yields favourable for their business models, but dragged by techs, especially Amazon on concern of viability of its new subscription business model.

US stock future (SPX-500) is now trading around 2503, almost unchanged on muted Asian cues ahead of EU market opening. USDJPY gained some pips on talks of an early JP election by next month favourable for Abe amid his increasing popularity on NK missile crisis handling and an unprepared oppositions; Abe may continue JP QQE for more time when BOJ may be thinking of some back door/indirect QQE tapering under Kuroda, whose term will end next year.

Back to home, Indian market (Nifty Fut) after opening edged down, may focus on Govt’s fiscal stimulus talks in the forthcoming budget to revive the slowing economy ahead of key state & general elections in 2018-19; but considering the muted GST collections for the 1st month on account of huge input tax credit claims for the transition stocks and ongoing glitches in the GSTN network, there may be some constraint for the Govt capex in H2FY18, which was the sole driver for India’s GDP in the last few years.

Under the fiscal stimulus, Govt may also try to reform the direct tax mechanism to make it more simpler & affordable to improve the overall tax/GDP ratio; but reform in petro products taxation may looks remote at this stage as Govt can’t afford to lose an easy way to collect substantial tax revenue. Market may also focus on meeting between PMO-FMO/FIN MIN secretaries & CEA today to take stock of the Indian economic conditions.

Apart from these, market may be also concerned about new SEBI rule to disclose any loan default by the listed cos to be effective from 3rd Oct; because this may put more stressed cos & NPA in the limelight and may cause another wave of AQR types of disruptions in the system/market.



SGX-NF

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