Market Mantra: 19/09/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 10160 (-19)
For the Day:
Key support for NF: 10150-10090
Key resistance for NF: 10205-10250
Key support for BNF: 24950-24850
Key resistance for BNF: 25150-25250
Hints for positional trading:
Technicals
indicate that, NF has to sustain over 10205 area for further rally towards
10250- 10325 & 10385-10455 area in the short term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10185 area, NF may fall
towards 10150-10090 & 10050-9995 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 25150 area for further rally
towards 25250-25350 & 25585-25785 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25100-25050 area, BNF may
fall towards 24950-24850 & 24700-24500 area in the near term (under bear
case scenario).
As par early SGX
indication, Nifty Fut (Sep) may open around 10160, edged down by around 19
points tracking muted global cues as market may be cautious ahead of Fed &
BOJ and on increasing US-SK war drills in the Korean peninsula to put “peaceful
pressure campaign” on NK and elections in Germany & NZ this week coupled
with a snap poll for JP next month
Yesterday US has also
indicated that they have some war strategy that will prevent any cascading NK
attack on SK in case of an war, without divulging much details about it. Market
may be also worried about any drastic change in US policy under Trump for the
Iran nuke deal and any trade war stance against China coupled with some optimism
about US tax reform policy & Trump’s ability to pass his legislative agenda
on the strength of his bipartisan stance.
Overnight US market closed
in positive; DJ-30 gained by around 0.28%, S&P-500 was up by 0.15% to close
around 2504 and NASDAQ edged up by 0.1%, helped primarily by banks on higher US
bond yields favourable for their business models, but dragged by techs, especially
Amazon on concern of viability of its new subscription business model.
US stock future (SPX-500) is now
trading around 2503, almost unchanged on muted Asian cues ahead of EU market
opening. USDJPY gained some pips on talks of an early JP election by next month
favourable for Abe amid his increasing popularity on NK missile crisis handling
and an unprepared oppositions; Abe may continue JP QQE for more time when BOJ
may be thinking of some back door/indirect QQE tapering under Kuroda, whose
term will end next year.
Back to home, Indian market (Nifty Fut) after opening
edged down, may focus on Govt’s fiscal stimulus talks in the forthcoming budget
to revive the slowing economy ahead of key state & general elections in
2018-19; but considering the muted GST collections for the 1st month
on account of huge input tax credit claims for the transition stocks and
ongoing glitches in the GSTN network, there may be some constraint for the Govt
capex in H2FY18, which was the sole driver for India’s GDP in the last few years.
Under the fiscal
stimulus, Govt may also try to reform the direct tax mechanism to make it more simpler
& affordable to improve the overall tax/GDP ratio; but reform in petro
products taxation may looks remote at this stage as Govt can’t afford to lose
an easy way to collect substantial tax revenue. Market may also focus on
meeting between PMO-FMO/FIN MIN secretaries & CEA today to take stock of
the Indian economic conditions.
Apart from these, market
may be also concerned about new SEBI rule to disclose any loan default by the
listed cos to be effective from 3rd Oct; because this may put more
stressed cos & NPA in the limelight and may cause another wave of AQR types
of disruptions in the system/market.
SGX-NF
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