Market Wrap: 05/09/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Sep):9975 (+47; +0.48%) (TTM PE: 25.92; Nr.
2-SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 384; NS: 9952)
NSE-BNF (Sep):24389 (+99; +0.41%) (TTM PE: 27.43;
Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg PE: 20 TTM Q1FY18 EPS: 887; BNS: 24328)
For 06/09/2017:
Key support for NF: 9940-9875
Key resistance for NF: 10000-10050
Key support for BNF: 24200-24000
Key resistance for BNF: 24525-24675
Hints for positional trading:
Time & Price action
suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10000 area for further rally towards 10050-10090
& 10160-10205 area in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 9980 area, NF may fall
towards 9940-9875 & 9820-9750 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24525 area for further rally
towards 24575-24675 & 24775-24875 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 24475-24400 area, BNF may
fall towards 24200-24000 & 23850-23700 area in the near term (under bear
case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut/India-50) today closed around 9975, recovered by
almost 47 points (+0.48%) after making a mid session low of 9915 and late
session high of 9982, tracking positive EU cues and optimism about improving
diplomatic relationship with China at BRICS meet with India.
Indian market today opened edged up on mixed global/Asian cues
and got further strength on incremental policy reforms by the Govt, an improved
India Service PMI and optimism over improving diplomatic & trading
relationship with China after the recent spate of border stand-offs.
But concern of an imminent ICBM launch by NK may have again
resurfaced and Indian market goes into some selling spree before EU market
opens and made the day low. Again, after opening of the EU market, EZ service
PMI for Aug flashed as little subdued and thus EUR goes lower ahead of ECB
tomorrow, helping the EU market & DAX to some extent.
Subsequently, Indian market also got some boost and short
covering & some bargain hunting helped the market to recover almost half of
yesterday’s loss triggered by NK nuke tensions.
Nifty was today supported by RIL, HDFC, TCS, IOC, Tata Motors,
Adani Ports, Ultratech Cem, Kotak Mahindra Bank & HDFC Bank, totaling
almost 32 points contribution in Nifty.
Nifty was dragged by Bharti Airtel, Bharti Infratel, Sun Pharma,
Bosch, LT & SBI, totaling almost 12 points in Nifty.
RIL was in limelight after favourable IMG recommendations of
gradual scraping IUC charges and GRM optimism after the recent refinery
shutdown in US for Harvey typhoon. But, Airtel & other telecoms were in
pain as scrapping of IUC charges is negative for them. HDFC & Bajaj Fin was
also upbeat after news of fund raising by QIP. Cements stocks gained on reports
of price hike as demands are picking up at the end of monsoon session.
Overall, barring Pharma, almost all the other sectors like
banks, oil & gas, CG, reality, metals has seen brisk buying today after
yesterday’s sell off.
Meanwhile, Indian Govt has “struck off” over 2 lakh suspected
shell cos and cancelled their registrations & also blocked the bank
accounts for money laundering activities in its ongoing war against black
money. Although this is in expected line, overall this may be negative for the
market sentiment and if there are significant numbers of listed cos in the
above shell list, there may be another knee-jerk reaction.
As par reports, GSTN network is now facing frequent technical
glitches, while uploading tax returns and that is also causing some problem in
tax revenue & cash flow mismatch of the states.
Today, Indian PM was in China at BRICS meet and is also engaged
with face to face & bilateral discussions with his Chinese counterpart Prez
Xi. Market may be looking for stable & healthy relationships between the
two neighbors, which were under some types of “trust deficit” for the last few
months.
Meanwhile, India’s service PMI for Aug flashed as 47.5 against
45.9 in July; composite PMI came as 49.0 vs 46.0; although it’s still below
boom/bust line of 50, today’s composite PMI may be a visible improvement after
GST disruptions in the last few months; mfg component is showing some surprised
rebound.
As par Markit, the underlying trend for services is still under
uncertainty and business/private investments are still subdued, leading to
falls in employment. Thus, overall situation of stable employment in India may
be quite worrisome.
USDINR-I was unfazed around 64.29; looking ahead it has to sustain over
64.50 area for further rally; 63.95-63.75 zone may be a good positional support
for it.
Looking ahead, apart from stretched valuations, Indian market
may be continued to be a victim of NK geo-political tensions despite
incremental policy reforms by the Govt. As par updated NSE data (?), Q1FY18 TTM
EPS for Nifty may be now around 384, down from around 395 in Q4FY17 and in that
scenario, Nifty TTM PE may be now around 25.78 at Nifty 9900 level, still over
2-SD of 25 and well above historical mean PE of 20.
Market may be giving benefit of doubt due to DeMo & GST
disruptions and may wait & watch the Q2FY18 numbers to see the actual
trend; till then Nifty may hover around the broad range of
9700/9650-10150/10200 area and every fall due to any black swan event may be
utilized for accumulation of quality scrips having reasonable valuations.
As par some reports, Govt may watch the net GST collections till
Dec’17 and if the present upwards trend or good collection is continued, then
GST rates may be reduced on some selected products & services.
Globally, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed tracking muted global/Asian cues after a report that NK
is moving its ICBM launch pad to the west coast launch zone ahead of its
“foundation day” on 9th Sep, which seems to be a preparation for
another ICBM test with heavy payload.
Although, it may be also a part of demonstration of its ICBM
missile capability in the foundation day celebration, market is anxious about
another ICBM launch over the JP airspace towards the US military base in Guam
at Pacific Ocean and thus, there is again some risk aversion sentiment.
A rising NK tensions may be also good for US defence industry as
both SK & Japan are on defence spending spree and are buying billions of
dollars worth military hardware & missile defence system from US.
As par some reports, JP is also planning to evacuate almost
60000 Japanese citizens from SK as a precautionary measure, in case US attacks
NK.
Although, Asian markets are under constant NK hangover, optimism
about China that Govt will maintain support for its economy ahead of the
crucial party congress may have also supported the regional market sentiment
(China & HK), which in turn also boosted the Indian market sentiment today.
An upbeat China Service & Composite PMI may have also supported the overall
regional market sentiment today.
As US market was
closed yesterday for Labour Day holiday, market may be also waiting for
reaction from US traders in the NY session today for the overall NK nuke
issues. US stock future (SPX-500) is
now edged down around 2465 (-0.10%) ahead of EU opening. Apart from
geo-politics, market may also focus on ECB day after tomorrow to gauze Draghi’s
appetite for QE tapering.
Elsewhere, Australia
(ASX-200) closed around 5702, almost unchanged after AUDUSD gained despite “dovish hold” at 1.50% by RBA today (in the
expected line). RBA, on its part tried to talk-down the AUD, but overall tone
of the RBA statement may be quite optimistic on AU growth & employment
prospect and stable housing prices despite some concern about growing household
debts. Overall, positive AU economic data may have also supported the AUD
sentiment today ahead of GDP tomorrow and market may be also quite optimistic
about AU growth.
AU market was dragged by utilities, basic resource materials
(lower metals), IT & Industrials, while it was supported by gold miners
& energies to some extent (higher gold prices after renewed NK &
Bitcoin concern).
Japan (Nikkei-225) closed around 19386, down by almost 0.63% on higher Yen as USDJPY further plummeted to almost 109
in the early Asian session today following fresh concern of an imminent ICBM
launch by NK. Although, JP may be a primary target of NK missile rhetoric,
theoretically, being a net creditor nation, Yen is assumed to be safe haven
currency, even if NK attacks it!! A higher Yen is not good for JP exports &
the market.
Despite higher Yen, some automakers has helped the JP market
today by some extent amid upbeat sales figure in China.
China (SSE) was trading around 3385, up by almost 0.16% amid record fund
inflow from overseas investors on a strong Yuan policy by PBOC. Market is also
very much optimistic about China economic growth despite ongoing deleveraging
as policymakers may not try to destabilize the market or economy ahead of China
party congress and may also announce some fresh stimulus after the current
deleveraging effort.
Today, China service PMI
for Aug flashed as 52.7 against estimate of 51.8; prior: 51.5; composite PMI
came as 52.4 vs 51.9 in July. Overall, a solid PMI data for China with service
sector expanding fastest in the last three months in line with Govt’s policy to
change China from being too much dependent on manufacturing activities to a
more balanced approach.
The recent spate of upbeat PMI data in China may be also
indicating that despite concern of an economic slowdown after PBOC/regulatory
tightening, Chinese economy may be resilient.
Today PBOC fixed USDCNY
at 6.5370 vs 6.5668 yesterday with net drain of 70 bln Yuan without any OMO as
the liquidity in the banking system is relatively high. Although, Yuan is
significantly devalued against USD in the recent months, it’s still 5% devalued
against EUR, which may be helping China for its EU exports as US is
increasingly become more trade protectionist. A strong Yuan may be also good
for Chinese banks.
Hong-Kong (HKG-33) is now trading around 27750, down by almost 0.10% and well off
the day high of 27870; it was being supported by China based optimism, resource
& financial stocks.
Meanwhile, Crude Oil
(WTI) is now trading around 47.55, up by almost 0.32% on gradual resumption
of Harvey hit US refineries (better demand); much earlier than expected.
Technically, WTI now has to sustain over 47.85 area for further
rally towards 48.90-49.25 & 50.45 zone; otherwise it may again come down,
sustaining below 47.70 area for 47.05-46.45 & 45.50 zone.
Gold is now trading around 1334, up almost 0.60% on renewed NK
concern coupled with China’s regulatory prohibition action against Crypto
currencies (ICO); Gold has now a good appeal against ongoing geo-political
jitters.
Looking ahead, Gold has to sustain over 1345-1355 area for
1365-1375 zone; otherwise it may again fall; near term positional support may
be now around 1325.
Elsewhere EU stocks
are mixed; Stroxx-50 is now down by 0.05%, while DX-30 is up by 0.50%, FTSE-100
is down by 0.23% and CAC-40 has also lost almost 0.12% on EUR volatility & ongoing
NK jitters. Overall EZ service PMI data today flashed as subdued and EUR
drooped by some extent, helping the EU stocks. But, a robust EZ business survey
data also helped the EUR to regain the lost ground and subsequently, EU market
is off the day high.
Electrical auto makers & insurers is helping the market
coupled with some leading health care stocks. Also gold miners & energies
are helping the market.
Although, UK market is being helped by retailers & miners, a
higher GBPUSD is also affecting the export heavy index today.
Asian Market Is Trading Mixed After News Of An Imminent ICBM Launch Preparation By NK:
USDJPY Drifting Towards 108 On NK Nuke/ICBM Tensions Coupled With Dovish Stance From Fed's Brainard & Concern Of US Shutdown:l
SGX-NF
BNF
USDJPY
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