Thursday, 14 September 2017

Nifty May Start The “Bullet Train” Day Almost Flat Amid Muted/Mixed Global Cues After China Data Miss & US Tax Reform Optimism; All Eyes May Be On WPI Today Coupled With NAMO & Abe



Market Mantra: 14/09/2017 (09:00)

SGX-NF: 10090 (-6)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 10085/10050-10000/9945

Key resistance for NF: 10140/10160-10205

Key support for BNF: 24725-24600/24500

Key resistance for BNF: 24875-24975/25075

Hints for positional trading:

Technicals indicate that, NF has to sustain over 10160 area for further rally towards 10205-10250 & 10325-10385 area in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10140 area, NF may fall towards 10060-10000 & 9945-9870 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24975 area for further rally towards 25075-25150 & 25250-25585 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 24925-24875 area, BNF may fall towards 24725-24600 & 24500 -24250 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Sep) may open around 10090, almost flat (-6 points) tracking muted/mixed Asian/Global cues amid subdued China economic data & optimism about US tax reform coupled with renewed NK missile concern.

Overnight US market edged up in another trio of record close (DJ/S&P/NQ) on gains by consumer discretionary & energies coupled with losses by techs/chip makers on Apple i-Phone disappointment and healthcare & property developers/real estate stocks. DJ-30 closed around 0.18% higher, while S&P-500 & NASDAQ edged up by around 0.08%. US stock Fut (SPX-500) is now trading around 2493, down by almost 0.15%.

Although, US economic data (PPI) was subdued yesterday, USD/US bond yields got some boost from an imminent US tax reform hopes & official publication of the tax proposal on 25th Sep coupled with Trump’s bipartisan approach to get the legislation passed by US congress. This may be a significant legislative win by Trump after his recent strategy to team up with DNC for the extension of temporary US debt limit & Harvey relief, even for the risk of bypassing his own RNC members.

But, it may be too early to be over optimistic about Trump’s political maturity & his ability to pass key US economic reform legislative agenda as US political drama may be far from over. Despite US tax reform optimism, USD is not able to break the 111 level because of ongoing NK & Trump’s alleged Russian link investigation. 

But again, NK hangover may be a perfect instrument for Trump to keep the USD lower, while perusing for his tax reform agenda. USD came under some pressure again after news that NK is moving its mobile missile launcher and may be preparing for another Nuke enabled ICBM test, which is able to strike US mainland.

Back to home, Indian market (Nifty Fut) may try again to catch up the life time high after opening almost flat on the day of India’s historic “Bullet Train” project inauguration jointly by India’s & Japan’s PM today; bullet train may be a symbol of India’s aspiration to grow bigger in line with developed countries. 

But Govt may also now focus on Indian Railway reform in line with airlines to make it a modern day railway with average speed above 100-150 km/hr from present 55 km/hr and that may be a true signal of India’s development. The average speed of Indian railway is almost the same under NDA now as was under UPA and thus the GDP growth rate is also identical!!

Today Indian market may focus on Govt’s “commitment” to not interfere in oil pricing mechanism by the OMCS; but Govt is also non-committal about tax reform in oil products and also not ready to roll back the excess tax/ED imposed during times of exigencies & urgent need for revenue as overall fiscal math may not be sound now.

All eyes may be also on WPI today after surge in CPI, which is poised to come around 3% for Aug vs 1.88% recorded in July; a higher WPI may be negative for GDP/GVA deflator and the unfavorable base effect of the WPI (from negative last year to positive this year) may be one of the primary reasons behind the dramatic fall in India’s recent GDP apart from adverse effect of DeMo & GST.



SGX-NF

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