Wednesday, 14 March 2018

Nifty tumbled on renewed concern about PNB “loot” payout to other banks but recovered to close almost flat on talks of LTCGT withdrawal by the government

Market Wrap: 13/03/2018

NSE-NF (March):10423 (-10; -0.09%)

NSE-BNF (Jan):24810 (+62; +0.25%)

Valuation metrics:

NS: 10427; Q2FY18 EPS: 410; Q2FY18 PE: 25.43; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360

BNS: 24739; Q3FY18 EPS: 822; Q2FY18 PE: 30.10; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

For 14/03/2018:

Updated: 08:00

SGX-NF: 10390; (-33 points; -0.33%)

Expected BNF opening: 24720 (-0.33%)

(Gap-down on subdued global/US cues after Rexit and White House turmoil despite a soft US inflation report on Tuesday, favorable for the US stock market)

March-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:


Resistance to NF:


Support for BNF:


Resistance to BNF:


Technical View (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10435 for a further rally towards 10465/10500-10520/10570-10615/10665 in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10415 NF may fall towards 10360/10325-10285/10240-10180/10140 in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 24900 for a further rally towards 25100/25250-25450/25650-25800/26050 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 24850/24800, BNF may fall towards 24600/24500-24400/24150-24000/23850 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

The Indian market story on 13/03/2018:

The Indian market (Nifty Fut-March/India-50) closed around 10423 on Tuesday, edged down by almost 0.09%, but well off the earlier opening session high of 10490 on renewed concern about PNB loan fraud payout to other banks. The Indian market opened almost flat on Tuesday amid muted global cues but surged soon on domestic macro cheers after lower inflation, but higher IIP data released on Monday.  

Additionally, Banks were in upbeat mood on news that a fragile PSB (BOI-Bank of India) has recovered almost Rs.0.07 tln in the last two months owing to IBC/NCLT pressure and thrust on NPA resolution and BOI is also expecting to recover another Rs.0.02 tln of NPAs in next two months.

PNB may not pay its huge liabilities to other banks after the alleged loan fraud:

But the market came under intense selling pressure in late day trading after reports that PNB may not pay the other banks for the epic loan fraud by the Gitanjali group of companies. Subsequently, Nifty-Fut tumbled to the day low of around 10374 on panic selling primarily dragged by banks. Bank Nifty-Fut also plunged to 24636 from the earlier high of 25090, a sharp fall of almost 1.8% in a matter of 30 minutes.

As par earlier reports, PNB may pay the other banks for the loan fraud arising out of its LOUs with several conditions (caveats). But banking sources, however, said such an agreement was not yet a done deal. “We are talking. But then we have not come to a conclusion,” said a senior banker, adding that PNB had not yet provided concrete assurances of repayment.

Another banker said that, although they were hopeful of arriving at an “amicable solution” on who takes the liability, but added it would likely need intervention by India’s central bank (RBI) and the government.

There was also a report that government is not considering any proposal for an alternative mechanism for PSBS consolidation and abolishment of Banks Board Bureau.

Meanwhile, IBA (Indian Banks Association) is also scheduled to meet shortly to discuss the overall bond market movement in India and provisioning norms for the MTM losses. As a reminder, the benchmark 10Y Indian bond yield has surged from 6.4% to 7.8% in the last seven months, putting severe pressure on Bank’s operating profit (EBITDA) on their bond portfolio amid deep MTM loses (as bond prices fell drastically).

The government may blink on the LTCGT:

On Tuesday, the Indian market recovered again from the day low and closed almost flat on news that government may review the LTCGT (long-term capital gain tax) on request from various market participants and could hike the limit for such tax on capital gains of above Rs.0.02 mln from Rs.0.01 mln proposed in the budget. There was also another speculation that government may withdraw the LTCGT altogether in order to boost the fragile market sentiment.

As par MOS Finance: LTCG decision to reflect in the official amendment, if any to Finance bill, 2018.

After the market hours, PNB disclosed another “undiscovered loot” (theft) of Rs.9.42 bln and RBI banned the use of LOU/LOC (letter of undertaking/comfort) in trade finance for imports as a result of the PNB fiasco. This may not only hamper the gems & jewelry business and related employment, but also the overall importers.

In brief, as PNB “loot” is getting murkier day by day and government is on war footing to nab the willful celebrity defaulters and also the bankers, suspected in collusion and corruption, there is a sense of fear psychosis among both the lenders (bankers) and borrowers, which may affect the overall economic activity severely in the coming days.

As deleveraging pressure intensified on stressed Indian corporates, Tata sons sold around 1.5% of its stake in the cash cow TCS on Tuesday to pay for the huge debt in another group of companies controlled by them. We may see more such deleveraging steps, as banks are clearly sending the message that “enough is enough; build your brand by your own money rather than ours”.




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