BNF (CMP: 18277) has immediate positional support of around 17540 zone & sustain below that 17200 zone may come. At least two consecutive closing below 17200, BNF may fall up to 14250 area (low probability unless we see global melt down or some adverse development in the domestic front).
It has already took support from around 17700 zone few days ago and sustain above 18350-18418 zone, it may target 19600-20750 & 21000 zone in the short term. Mid term target may be around 21650. For the intraday today, 17900 zone may provide immediate support.
It appears that some of the key negative news (not so good results in Q4, NPA/Asset Quality concern, capitalization issues in PSB & unseasonal rains/crop damages etc) may have already discounted in the recent spate of corrections of around 15% from its cyclical top.
Going forward, forthcoming RBI policy event may be a trigger in the form of SLR/CRR cut in order to reduce overall effective costs of funds to the banking industry for smooth transmission of rate cut to the ultimate borrowers. Further repo rate cut (0.75-100 bps) may happen gradually within FY-2016.
Our Govt. is also taking a definitive step to address the "concerns of the Oppositions" in the Land bill and may be able to pass it with some corrections in the forthcoming 2-nd part of budget session starting from 20-th April. This, along with GST may be another game changer of "Modinomics" & investment cycle may also start to pick up, which will also be beneficial for the banks.
Globally, Yellen is clearly sounds like "dovish" in her late hour speech on last Friday. All eyes will be on the job data of US in this week end and on 9-th April for Greece (scheduled IMF loan tranche payment) to keep the suspense on.
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