NF may open around 8890 (substantial gap down from its LTP @8986).
For Nifty Fut(NF), 8860-8820 is a strong support zone & sustain below that 8750-8645 may be on the card.
On the upside, NF has to give at least two consecutive closing above 9030-9065 zone for 9225 and 9450-9600 zone in the short to medium term.
In the global front, S&P-500 retraced a lot after Friday job report in US and is near its critical support zone of around 2060-2045. Although, the job report was an apparent block buster, it came amid lower participation rate & wage growth. This lower wage growth and muted inflation in US along with some concern of key global economic power house such as China, may force FED to act slowly. Probability that, in the forthcoming FOMC statement on 24-th March, FED may replace the word "Patient" and may start "Live Mode" of closely watching the US economy meeting by meeting. Overall, FED may not be in a hurry to raise interest rate in June'2015, but it may think so in Sep'2015 (if the current job strength in US continues and there is no global turmoil). But this may also be proved to be another case of "Buy the news, sell the fact" as recent strength of USD has largely discounted this scenario.
On the domestic front, all eyes may be on the passage of key insurance/land bills etc in RS, where a surprise may come in the form of indirect support (abstain) from some apparently "opposite parties".
If, failed in RS this time, we may see a joint session of parliament for passing of these bills shortly.
Although, rate cut (out of policy date) may be widely expected this time, repeated method of the same & timing (pre-market opening) may not amuse the large market participants quite greatly. Going forward, analysts circle may also have to keep calender of "Auspicious Indian Days" such as Pongal, Holi, Dewali etc to keep track of possible RBI rate action between out of policy days.
Trading Levels: Nifty Fut(NSE-MAR):
Gap Up/Dw | (Indicative) | |||||
SGX NIFTY | 8890 | -96 | ||||
NF-MAR | LTP | 8986 | ||||
SL (+/-) 10 POINTS | FROM SLR | |||||
Intraday Swing | Trader | |||||
T1 | T2 | T3 | SLR | |||
Strong > | 8880 | 8903-8924 | 8942-8972* | 9000-9030 | <8860 | |
Weak < | 8860 | 8842-8822 | 8793-8750* | 8701-8670 | >8880 | |
FOR | Conservative | Positional | Trader | |||
T1 | T2 | T3 | SLR | |||
Strong > | 8880 | 8924 | 8972* | 9030-9065 | <8860 | |
Weak < | 8860 | 8822 | 8750* | 8670-8645 | >8880 | |
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