7750-7680 May Be A Big Support For Today Amid "Bihar Tragedy"
SGX NF: 7838 (CMP)
NSE NF: 7985 (LTP)
As par early SGX indication we may open big gap down after the "below expected" result of BJP in Bihar.
Technically, for NF, 7915 is a strong support followed by 7840. If NF opened gap down around 7800 area, then it may find support around 7750 and sustain below that 7680-7632-7540-7500 might be the target.
On the upside, NF need to sustain above 7931-7975-8030 zone for any meaningful reversal today or tomorrow.
This Bihar result is partly discounted already for the last few days as market was doubtful about BJP's prospect; but the margin of defeat is definitely below expectation. Although, on last week, there was a market talk of about BJP getting around 65 seats in Bihar as par an Indian Express article.
Only bright thing is that BJP has got the largest share of vote as a single party in Bihar.
In any way, after the possible big gap down, expect huge institutional support from DII as well as FII and market may rebound soon after opening (like Delhi election day ) !!
For BJP, its again & again proved that except NAMO, there are few acceptable leaders at state levels who can be accepted as CM candidate; certainly Majhi can't be a replacement for Nitish Kumar in Bihar. This factor has possibly dumped BJP in Bihar apart from ongoing "intolerance" & other ideological issues including "beef politics".
NAMO was elected without any virtual contest in 2014 purely for its development agenda and an appeal as a leader. People has a dream that NAMO will make the rest of India just like Gujarat. They didn't vote BJP for its ideological stances.
Surely, BJP will realize that by its ideological drama, it can't win elections. So, it has to stick to its development & economic reform agenda, because at the end of the day, common people will only want to see the improvement in its standard of living.
We may see more Govt action for proactive reforms and even joint session of parliament for passage of key reform bills, because BJP will realize that by sticking to its pro-reform stance, there is nothing to loose now.
Also, global liquidity may help India immensely as there are few comparable EM destinations right now. Thus buy in dips, until 7500 holds in Nifty may not be a bad idea for the time being.
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