Market
Wrap: 05/07/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF
(July): 9647 (+23; +0.24%) (TTM PE: 24.40; Near 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 18; TTM
EPS: 395; NS: 9638)
NSE-BNF
(July): 23407 (+151; +0.65%) (TTM PE: 29.37; Near 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM
EPS: 795; BNS: 23353)
For
06/07/2017:
Key support for NF: 9580-9535
Key resistance for NF:
9675-9725
Key support for BNF:
23300-23000
Key resistance for
BNF: 23550-23800
Time & Price action suggests that,
NF has to sustain over 9675 area for further rally towards 9725-9775 &
9835-9875 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 9655
area, NF may fall towards 9605-9580 & 9560-9535 & area in the short
term (under bear case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23550
area for further rally towards 23650-23800 & 23900-24050 area in the near
term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below
23500 area, BNF may fall towards 23300-23100 & 23000-22800 area in the near
term (under bear case scenario).
Nifty
Fut (July) today closed around 9647, almost 23 points up after a range bound
day of trading. Nifty has made a opening session of 9615 and closing minutes
high of 9651. Indian market today opened around 9636, almost 16 points up tracking subdued Global/Asian cues after US-SK drill of
barrage of missiles following NK’s ICBM gift to the US yesterday on its
independence day.
Most
of the Asian markets recovered from early losses and trading almost flat after
“war of words” erupted between NK & US today. After NK’s “independence day
gift” to US as an ICBM test yesterday and promise of more such frequent “gifts”
to US as long as it stops “provocation”
on it, US & SK has done a barrage of missile drills today, which has
earlier caused a risk-off mode in the global as well as Asian markets.
As a result, USDJPY was down for safe heaven demands for
Japanese Yen, bonds & Gold. Also, upbeat Service & Composite PMI data
from Japan today may have made the USDJPY weak and we have some early risk-off
sentiment around the Asian session. But, off late, USDJPY has recovered to some
extent ahead of FOMC minutes today and that has caused some short covering of
risk assets and may have also supported the Indian market sentiment today.
Looking ahead the
domestic market may continue try to gauge the
impact of GST on growth & earnings; but market may also focus on the
NPA/IBC resolution issues as the legal challenge by various large stressed
accounts under the so called “dirty dozen” may also delay the overall resolution
process as IBC act will be tested at SC eventually.
But some banks like
SBI, ICICI, PNB, Axis were upbeat today as Govt may have decided to approve the
Essar-Rosneft deal for $13 bln, which have got stuck earlier due to some
security related issues involving Vadinar port. As the deal was signed in
presence of the Indian PM & Russian Prez, the deal will go on and 90% of
the proceeds will be used to repay the loans by the above banks.
Indian market today got
some boost from upbeat forecast from IMD about monsoon trajectory with inline
distributions all over the country except some pockets of deficit like in
states of WB, UP & C’garh. Overall, IMD is expecting at par normal monsoon
(96% of LPA) and looking for bumper crops harvest & production this year.
But, due to excess
production farmers are also suffering as prices of some crops & vegetables
has plummeted. On the other hand, due to uneven rainfalls in some regions,
prices of pulses have also surged; DeMo may be another factor for some
disruptions in the crops production chain.
Today India Service PMI (June) came also upbeat at 53.1 against
52.2 in May; but composite PMI printed almost flat at 52.7 in June against 52.5
in May due to fall in Mfg PMI, which may be as a result of Pre-GST disruptions
(de-stocking of goods).The rebound in service PMI was driven by sharp jump in
new work orders, which may be also suggesting an economic rebound going forward
and thus Indian market sentiment may have got some boost also.
Technically, Nifty-Fut (July) now need to sustain above
9675-9725 area for further life time highs; otherwise except some time &
price correction as valuations may be quite stretched with tepid earning
recovery despite some green shoots narrative.
Overall, today may be another consolidation day, but broader
markets outperformed the bench mark index (Nifty) today, with NSE
advance/decline ratio was at 2:1 and 12 stocks in Nifty closed in red.
Nifty was supported most by RIL (R-Jio optimism), M&M (GST
price cuts on various Auto models & upbeat monsoon may be good for rural
economy), ICICI Bank & Lupin (US FDA approval for a blockbuster product).
Overall, buying was quite visible in Oil & Gas, Metals, Banks &
Automobiles, while IT, FMCG sectors faced the heat of some selling pressure.
Nifty was dragged most by ITC (renewed concern about additional
tax on cigarettes & profit booking after recent stellar rally), HDFC (NPA
concern from one of the big stressed A/C), TCS & INFY (report of salary
hike & pessimistic outlook).
Overall looking ahead, Indian market may now focus on Q1FY18
earnings from next week and effect of GST implementation on the broader economy
& corporate bottom lines. As par some reports, after few days of GST roll
out and dismantling of state check posts, trucks (logistics) movement across
the states are now nearly halved due to E-Way bill confusions. There are also
various confusions about selling of Pre-GST stocks with new MRP.
Also, road sector (construction equipments) may be facing some
GST disruptions apart from real estate & land related confusions; it’s
becoming more & more difficult to track the multiple rates of taxes on
different products & services or even for the same categories.
In other Asian markets, China (SSE) was trading in green (+0.46%), recovered from early
NK panic following subdued Service PMI data for June at 51.6 against estimate
of 52.9 (prior: 52.8); composite PMI flashed as 51.1 for June against 51.5
in May. The soft PMI is still above the
boom/bust line of 50 and may also force PBOC to take some accommodative/neutral
stance in the days ahead in lieu of a global chorus of QT and thus, China
market may have also got some sentimental boost today. But China tech &
consumer stocks were under pressure today amid concern of stretched valuations.
PBOC today again drained out CNY 90 bln and over the last few
weeks, has effectively flushed out CNY 660 bln from the China money market in
an ongoing effort of deleveraging citing sufficient liquidity in the system due
to Govt capex; previously it had injected around CNY 540 bln through OMO. China
will also continue to crackdown on the shadow banking activities to de-risk the
economy from getting overheated.
Bonds connect may also boost the Chinese bond market in the
coming days through greater FPIS participations and India is also taking
similar steps to enhance the FPIS limit in its bond market, although Indian
bond market size may be quite small in comparison to China.
Japan (Nikkei-225) was also trading up (+0.25%) at this moment
after recovery in USDJPY; a weak Yen is good for Japanese economy & stocks.
Earlier in the morning, Japan was trading lower at -0.5% amid strength in Yen
after SK-US missile drills (show of strength) following escalation of “war of
words” between NK & US due to the ICBM test.
Japanese Service PMI data today also came upbeat at 53.3 for
June against 53 in May; but Composite PMI for June came soft at 52.9 against
53.4 in May due to earlier dip in Mfg PMI. Overall, today’s service PMI data
may be indicating some improvement in Japanese economy and points towards fresh
job creations, which may be also helpful for the much elusive Japanese wage
inflation in the coming days.
Australia (ASX-200) has closed in slight negative (-0.40%) following
some rebound in AUDUSD tracking upbeat AU economic data; both AU service PMI
and auto sales data for June were blockbuster today; service PMI for June came
as 54.8 against 51.5 in May. A strong AUD may be bad for Australian economy
& stocks, being an export oriented economy and RBA may find its very tough
to talk down the currency in the days ahead.
European market recovered from early losses amid NK jitters on the strength of
upbeat service PMI across the regions and that may have also helped the Indian
market sentiment today along with ongoing DII buying support (power of
liquidity).
Also, some fall in EUR after comments from ECB’s Coeure that
change of policy has not been discussed
in the ECB board meeting may have helped the EU market today as bund
yield goes lower on dovish talk by ECB official.
Overall, in the day of Service PMI today, EZ PMI flashed as
blockbuster at 55.4 against estimate of 54.7 (prior: 54.7); EZ retail sales for
May came also good at +0.4% (MOM) against estimate of 0.3% (prior 0.1%). But UK
service PMI came a bit softer at 53.4 for June against estimate of 53.5 (prior:
53.8).
Looking ahead, ECB may find it very difficult to keep its
accommodative/neutral monetary policy stance intact amid better service PMI,
which may be indicating an acute shortage of skilled workers across the EZ;
i.e. jobs are being created faster than supply of suitable skilled worker
(demand is more than supply), which may be also indicating a robust economic
recovery across EZ.
Although, ECB is now looking into Italy & France regions to
buy its QE bonds as German supply is increasingly going scarce, depending on
the Fed’s actual QT path, ECB may be also forced to begin its gradual tapering
in the months ahead; in that sense, today’s FOMC minutes may highlight more
about Fed’s thinking for its B/S tapering programme; QT may be well coordinated
among major G-10 central banks just like QE in the past to maintain an orderly
market movement; no central bank will act alone.
EU market was today supported by DAX to some extent after Adidas
upgrade; but overall gains were limited due to sudden fall in Oil tracking a
Russia comment that they are not interested for deeper OPEC oil production
cuts. Overall, EU market is now trading almost flat with DAX (+0.17%), FTSE
(+0.16%), CAC-40 (+0.17%) & MIB at -0.04%.
US market update:
Oil,
which was under some pressure today after 8 days of slow rally, suddenly
plummeted from around 47 area to almost 45 zone after a Russian official commented
that they will oppose any further production cuts contrary to earlier positions
for a scheduled meeting between OPEC-NOPEC countries on 24th July
for consultation on deeper cuts.
Technically,
Oil need to stay above 45.15 area now for any recovery; otherwise 43.75-42 zone
may be again coming soon. Looking ahead, tomorrow’s oil inventory report may be
also keenly watched along with geo-political developments in GCC involving
Qatar/Iran & Saudi Arabia and lingering tensions in NK & Syria. A war
or some types of serious geo-political tensions may be the last hope for oil
bulls now, as probabilities of a deeper production cut is looking increasingly remote
as of now.
Today’s
fall of Oil may be another classic example of a bear market, where prices goes up
in an elevator (slowly), but came down in an escalator (swiftly).
Meanwhile,
US factory orders tumbled most since Nov’116; for the month of May, it came
very subdued at -0.8% (MOM) against estimate of -0.5% (prior: -0.3%-R).
Subsequently SPX-500 also dropped by almost 10 points to 2419 from HOD of 2429
so far ahead of FOMC minutes later in the day today.
Technically,
SPX-500 now need to sustain above 2412 area; otherwise expect more corrections
towards 2395-2385 zone in the coming days amid increasingly hawkish QT tunes among
major G-10 central bankers; if FOMC minutes today also confirmed about Fed’s
tapering, then expect more such hawkish tunes from ECB/BOE/BOC and may be also
from BOJ in the coming days; risk trade then may face some serious hurdles.
SGX-NF
BNF
SPX-500
CRUDE OIL
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