Nifty May Open Marginally Higher Tracking Subdued Global Cues Amid Intensified US Political Circus; All Eyes May Be On Yellen’s Testimony & Indian CPI Today Amid Ongoing Forced Short Covering Of P-Notes FNO

Today BOC (Bank Of Canada) May Hike Its Rate For The 1^st Time Since 2015 By A Major G-10 Central Bank Apart From Fed Which May Be A Signal For Global Coordinated QT In The Coming Days.

Only A Trump Impeachment Can Force Fed To Stay In The Sideline Now.

Market Mantra: 12/07/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9805 (+8 points)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 97759755-9715

Key resistance for NF: 9835-9875

Key support for BNF: 23600-23400

Key resistance for BNF: 23800-23900

Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9835 area for further rally towards 9875-9915 & 9975-10050 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 9815 area, NF may fall towards 9715-9665 & 9600-9560 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23800 area for further rally towards 23900-24000 & 24115-24250 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 23750 area, BNF may fall towards 23600-23400 & 23300-23000 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut(July) may open around 9805, almost flat tracking subdued/mixed global/Asian cues after Trump Jr released a trail of mails revealing contacts with Russia in the US election affair. As a result, Trump Jr may have to now testify before US senate and also will be investigated by US special attorney Muller’s team.

Thus, US political drama is getting serious day-by-day and eventually “Don/Joker Trump” may also be accused as a “Russian spy “and may also be impeached & removed in the worst case scenario. This may be a onetime black swan event, but may be also positive for the risk assets as an element of daily caricature (circus) will be removed from US politics & administration (WH).

As a result, despite USDJPY is plunging, US stock market (DJ-30) yesterday recovered from the low as investors may be scrambling to buy the Trump dips and DJ-30 closed almost flat supported by Techs and Q2 earning optimism.

Back to home, yesterday’s Indusind Bank report card may be termed as mixed as despite decent top & bottom line figure, Bank’s asset quality may be losing shine. All eyes may be on the CPI tomorrow amid hopes of a RBI rate cuts in Aug’17.

Although, Indian market is breaking record after record, it’s coming on the back of forced P-Notes FNO short covering and not on the back of fundamental buying or reasons and also not being supported by earnings; TTM  PE may be now around 25, which is quite stretched and in the bubble zone also as par previous trends.

SGX-NF