Market Wrap: 24/07/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (July): 9961 (+51; +0.51%) (TTM PE: 25.22;
Near 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 9961)
NSE-BNF (July): 24377 (+129; +0.53%) (TTM PE:
30.72; Near 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24421)
For 25/07/2017:
Key
support for NF: 9960/9905-9860
Key resistance for NF: 9985/10005-10050
Key support for BNF: 24500-24700
Key resistance for BNF: 24200-24000
Hints for positional trading:
Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over
10005 area for further rally towards 10050-10115 & 10195-10250 in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 9985 area, NF may fall
towards 9905/9860-9820 & 9775- 9715 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24500 area for further rally
towards 24700-24875 & 25050-25275 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 24450 area, BNF may fall
towards 24200-24000 & 23750-23500 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).
Nifty Fut (July) today
closed around 9961, up by almost 51 points (+0.51%) after making a day high of
9974 and an opening minutes low of 9914; Nifty spot today made a high of around
9982, just few points shy of the 10k Mt’ Everest landmark level; but Nifty Fut
(Aug) today scaled the historic 10000 peak and made a high of 10013, before
closing at around 10003!!
Indian market today opened
around 9925, almost up by 14 points tracking subdued global/Asian cues; but
positive China/HKG market after upbeat forecast of China GDP (6.8%) by CASS (a
China think tank, closer to Govt circle) and optimism about China/HKG Next tech
shares after recent sell off; but China deleveraging story and subsequent
slowdown on overseas investment may also affect the sentiment later on.
Incidentally, IMF also sees China GDP at 6.7% this year (2017)
and 6.4% next year (2018); up by 0.1 & 0.2% from last forecast. China today
also injected a net 220 bln Yuan in its money market and set the USDCNY
reference rate a bit lower than yesterday (6.7410 vs 6.7415) on broad weakness
of USD amid intensified US political drama. China (SSE) today closed around
3250, almost up by 0.45%.
Back to home, Indian market today closed in deep green and at a
striking distance from the historic 10k mile stone on Q1 earning (HDFC Bank)
& RIL/R-Jio optimism (core business & telecom venture/R-Jio feature
phone-low cost 4-G enabled) and ITC (hike of cigarette prices by 6-8% after GST
cess increase fiasco by the Govt).
Today, IMF also upgraded slightly India’s GDP to 7.2% in 2017
and 7.3% for 2018 and 7.7% for 2019 evidently on Modinomics, which may have
also boosted the Indian market sentiment.
Apart from RIL, HDFC Bank and ITC, today Nifty was also
supported by IT (Wipro/TCS/INFY) and telecom shares (Bharti Airtel) after Govt
agreed to provide some stimulus (reform) for the fragile sector in terms of
deferred spectrum payment from existing 8 years to 16 years with reduced
interest rate (8% vs 12%).
Although, Govt has rejected the plea of telecom companies to
lower the GST rate of 18% & scrapping of 5% SUC charges, Govt has also
agreed to consider certain other recommendations by the IMG and TRAI will take
a final decision.
Overall, although today there was stock specific movements,
broader market may be quite muted and gained by around 0.3% only.
Govt today also kept its steady pace of incremental reforms by
allowing more limits for automatic FDI approval in certain defence contracts,
which may have also aided the domestic market sentiment today, which saw some
sharp selling in the last hour of trade, when Nifty spot hit the high of 9982,
just shy of the 10k level as valuations might be very expensive right now on hopes of a double digit (15%) EPS growth in Nifty, which is so
far, remains elusive in reality.
HDFC Bank today alone contributed almost 70% of the rally in
Bank Nifty on in line with expectations Q1 results; but on slight
disappointment of asset quality in agri portfolio owing to ongoing spree of
farm loan waivers by various states.
Nifty was today dragged by Pharma on renewed skepticism about US
FDA & US generic drug pricing, Tata Steel, Indusind & Kotak Bank.
Overnight, US market (DJ-30) closed in slight red (-0.15%) flowing terrible report
card from GE and ongoing Trumpcare/US political jitters; USDJPY has gone down
below the 111 level tracking ongoing US political tensions and some reports of
BOJ buying less JGB, made Yen & other Asian currencies stronger, which may
be affecting most of the export heavy Asia-Pacific index today.
Looking ahead,
SPX-500/US-500, which is now trading around 2465, has to sustain over 2475-2500
zone for more records high towards 2525-2550 area; otherwise sustaining below
2460, it may again fall to 2440-2400 area in the coming days; valuations may be already quite stretched amid hopes of
Trumponomics & a double digit US earnings growth.
Today, IMF kept projection of US GDP at 2.1% for 2017-18; unchanged from the previous
June’17 forecast, but lower form April’17 projection on account of poor
visibility of US structural/fiscal reform (Trumponomics). Overall, IMF has
cautioned against too fast QT by G-10 major central banks (Fed) and China’s
credit bubble and protectionism and urged to continue fiscal/structural reform
along with prudent monetary stimulus.
All eyes may be on the FOMC statement this week (26th
July) to see any definitive indication by Fed for the QE tapering from Sep’17;
although there is no probability of any rate action this time, FFR is expecting
a Dec’17 rate hike by around 50%. Apart, from economics, all eyes may be also
on the politics, as Trump & his son may be testified by US senate this
week; Trump is also scheduled to make a statement on US healthcare issues later
in the day.
Elsewhere, Australia (ASX-200) was closed around 5680, down by
almost 0.70% on strength of AUDUSD despite some dovish comments made by the RBA
Dy Gov on Friday, undermining global chorus of QT.
Similarly Japan (Nikkei-225) was closed around 19975, down by
almost 0.60% on strength of Yen (lower USDJPY).
But, Hong-Kong (HKG-33) closed in moderate green around 26825
(+0.40%) tracking China & tech shares optimism and driving the Indian
market sentiment also.
But, depressed European market as a result of a strong EUR and
some auto makers related probe may have
also dampened the Indian market sentiment toward the closing session and the
10k level remains elusive for today.
In commodities space, Oil (WTI) was trading almost flat around
45.80 (+0.05%) tracking renewed apprehension of supply glut, record refinery
production (gasoline) by China & subsequent dumping all over the globe,
OPEC production squabbling by Nigeria & Libya and hopes of some production
cut resolution at the OPEC-NOPEC meet in Russia today.
Looking at the chart, the
area of 45.50-45.15 may be a vital support for Crude Oil now and a break below
that may invite the area of 44.30-43.65; for any recovery, it need to stay
above 46.05-46.40 zone for further dead cat bounce towards 47.05-47.45 area in
the coming days.
Gold was trading around 1253, almost flat after making a high of
1257 amid broad weakness of USD earlier; but it is now retracing a bit tracking
some bids in USDJPY; technically, Gold
has to sustain over 1260-1265 area for more rally towards 1295-1300 zone;
otherwise expect some corrections below 1249 area for 1230-1214/1205 zone in
the coming days ahead of Fed.
NF
BNF
SPX-500
CRUDE OIL
GOLD
No comments:
Post a Comment