Nifty
Closed The July Exp Above 10k & Up By Almost 5% On Q1 Earning Optimism,
Smooth GST Roll Out, Good Monsoon, RBI Rate Cut Hopes, Forced P-Note FNO Short
Covering & Supportive Global Cues (Fed); What’s Next?
Market Wrap: 27/07/2017 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Aug): 10070 (+5; +0.05%) (TTM PE: 25.39;
Abv 2 SD of 25; Avg PE: 20; TTM EPS: 395; NS: 10021)
NSE-BNF (Aug): 24975 (+233; +0.94%) (TTM PE: 31.35;
Abv 3 SD of 30; Avg PE: 20 TTM EPS: 795; BNS: 24922)
For 28/07/2017:
Key
support for NF: 10050-10000
Key resistance for NF: 10115-10205
Key support for BNF: 25000-24800
Key resistance for BNF: 25150-25275
Hints for positional trading:
Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 10205
area for further rally towards 10275-10325 & 10380-10455 in the short term
(under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 10175-10150 area, NF may fall
towards 10100/10050-10000 & 9930-9860 area in the short term (under bear
case scenario).
Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 25150 area for further rally
towards 25275-25485 & 25695-25865 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25100-25050 area, BNF may
fall towards 24800-24600 & 24400-24200 area in the near term (under bear
case scenario).
Nifty Fut (Aug)/India-50 today closed around 10070, almost flat
(+0.05%) after making a day high of 10150 and closing session low of 10049,
thus erasing nearly all the intra gains fuelled by NAMO’s back door entry into
Bihar (more political stability for India), earning optimism and an apparent
dovish FOMC statement yesterday.
Indian market may have succumbed today in the last hour of trade
because of concern of stretched valuation & weak European market amid fear
of an imminent QE tapering in the months ahead by Fed (Sep/Dec’17) & also
ECB (Jan’18).
Also, strength in INR (weak USDINR) may have prompted selling in
export heavy IT, Pharma, RIL & Tata Motors (cross currency headwinds)
coupled with subdued earnings from some of the blue chips; so far private Banks
are reporting a robust set of earnings in line with market estimates. Almost 60%
of Nifty scrips are export heavy counters. Thus a weak USDINR may not be good
for them & the overall market.
Indian market (Nifty-Fut-Aug) today opened around 10088; at
another record high level tracking domestic earnings
& political optimism coupled with mixed global cues after FOMC statement
looked somewhat dovish yesterday.
Overall it seems that Fed is hawkish on QE tapering (from Sep/Dec’17?),
but dovish/soft on next rate hike in Dec’17; thus Fed’s dilemma about US
inflation may be preventing it for the 3rd rate hike in 2017 and to
some extent contrary to the earlier market expectations or Fed’s own dot plots
projection and its credibility may be at stake; subsequently USD is slammed
across the board; although apart from inflation aspect, Fed may be optimistic
about other aspects of the US economy, including employment.
USD plunged yesterday after FOMC statement sounded like more
dovish than market expected as Fed appeared concerned over the US core
inflation trajectory, ongoing political drama & poor visibility of
Trumponomics. Thus, Fed has put some caveats for the QE tapering even from Sep/Dec’17
subjected to smooth sailing of US debt limit and no probability of any terrible
political events like Trump impeachment.
Thus, Fed may wait for Sep’17 meeting to announce a definitive
plan for the QE tapering from Dec’17 instead of another rate hike and may hike
thrice in 2018 (1st hike may be in March’18), if everything from
politics & economics (growth, inflation & employment) has gone well for
US.
Previously, market may be expecting some kind of definitive
signal for the QE tapering from Sep’17 itself, but yesterday’s FOMC statement
has not indicated such perception with phrasing like “relatively soon, provided
that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated”. The word “relatively soon”
rather than only “soon” may be an indication that it may be deferred further to
Dec’17, if such condition warrants. FFR is now showing around 45% of a Dec’17
rate hike, down from 50% before FOMC.
Thus, lack of an ultra hawkish, confident & transparent Fed
may have disappointed the USD bulls yesterday; but a central bank will never
announce any major policy action prematurely; market has to wait for Sep’17 for
a definitive action plan by Fed; more signals may come out from the Aug Jackson
Hall meet and various forthcoming Fed speakers along with next batch of US
economic data like GDP, NFP, retail sales & inflation.
USD also sold off on some other minor tinkering of words like
core inflation is running below 2% instead of previous phrase of running
somewhat below 2%; but all these may be an act of overreaction and long
unwinding/fresh shorts as USD has already rallied a bit even before the FOMC.
But, more than Fed & USD, sudden strength of EUR just before
the FOMC statement because of hawkish jawboning by ECB’s Nowotny, a known dove
may have more bearing on the European markets later on as a strong EUR and a
definitive hints of ECB QE tapering form Jan’18 along with Fed’s QT may not be
good for the risk assets (EQ).
This may be purely coincidental, but may be also a part of
coordinated action, in which ECB’s Nowotny popped up just before FOMC and
commented that he agrees with Weidmann, who said “This is time to slowly go off
gas” and he clearly indicated that ECB is discussing actively about QT; but at
the same time he also believed that negative rates were necessary for a while;
question of distortion is dangerous.
Overnight, US market (DJ-30) also closed at another record high
on Boeing & other upbeat earnings, dovish Fed, lower USD, which is helpful
for US corporates, exports and the imported inflation. A lower USD may be also
being preferred by Trump & Co to make “America Great Again”. Thus, Fed’s
current policy/strategy may be also consistent with US administration, wishing
for a lower USD to promote US growth as being done by the other major G-10
countries. Without Boeing contribution yesterday, US market could have ended in
red!!
Back to home, Indian market (Nifty-Fut-Aug) today opened around
10088; at another record high level tracking domestic earnings
& political optimism coupled with mixed global cues after FOMC statement
looked somewhat dovish yesterday.
Today, RBI may have also intervened in the FX market indirectly
through two big PSU banks to buy the USD in order to stem the strength of INR
following a dovish Fed and increasing political stability of India; also RBI
may soon issue some guidelines about increase of FPI limit in the corporate
bond market due to huge demand for Indian debts and may also allow repo lending
against collaterals of eligible corporate bonds.
All these developments may have boosted the Indian market
sentiment today; but at 10100 Nifty, stretched valuation (TTM PE: 25.57)
concern may have also kept the market rally in check. Thus we have seen some
long unwinding/profit booking/fresh shorts (?) in the last hour of trade and
Nifty tumbled from the resistance zone of 10115-10150 area to close almost
flat.
Today Nifty was supported by Yes Bank, HDFC duo, Indusind Bank,
SBI & HUL, while it was dragged by DRL, TCS, INFY (buzz of CEO exit?), RIL,
BOB, ITC & Bharti Airtel. Almost 30% of the Nifty-50/51 scrips were closed
in deep to moderate red today.
But, increasing concern of central bank QT (Fed & ECB), a
strong EUR and some earnings disappointments may have kept the European market
under stress today and thus Indian market may have also came under pressure in
the last hour of trade.
Elsewhere, Australia (ASX-200) closed almost flat around 5785
(+0.10%) on strength of AUDUSD following China optimism; but being supported by
commodities (oil & metals) & mining stocks. As par reports, some big AU
banks may be considering relocation outside AU for the tax concerns.
Japan (Nikkei-225) was also closed almost flat around 20080
(+0.15%) on strength of Yen (lower USDJPY); but being helped by energy &
tech related stocks to some extent.
China (SSE) was in slight red around 3245 (-0.08%), but well of
the day lows amid ongoing regulatory tightening and strength in Yuan; PBOC
today fixed USDCNY a little lower at 6.7307 vs 6.7529, which is at multi month
low (Oct’16) and also injected a nominal 20 bln Yuan. Looking ahead, China may
be a big beneficiary for its bond market due to enhanced FPI participation and
ongoing financial market reform.
Hong-Kong (HKG-33) was in deep green around 27130 (+0.80%)
following optimism about commodities & techs and driving the overall
regional sentiment.
European markets are now trading in moderate red tracking
subdued report card from some of the blue chips like DB, Airbus in a day of
earning deluge today; almost 85 corporates among the Stoxx-600 will report
their earnings today; so far report card from Nokia & BASF were upbeat. Pharma
giant Astra is in severe pressure today (-15%), after one of its potential
block buster anti cancer product failed in the trial, thus resulting in
weakness among the health care stocks across the region.
FTSE-100 is now trading around 7442, almost down by 0.15%
tracking higher GBP and some earning disappointment.
Similarly DAX-30 is also down by 0.60% at around 12230, dragging
the overall EU market sentiment after DB debacle.
CAC-40 & IBEX-35 is trading almost flat around 5190, thus
limiting the overall fall in Stoxx-50 (-0.01%), with help from AEX (+0.43%), BEL-20
(+0.77%) & SMI (+0.75%).
Crude Oil (WTI) is also trading almost flat today around 48.75
despite better than expected drawdown report for EIA yesterday; surge in
underlying production may be one of the reasons behind its flat movement today.
SGX-NF
BNF
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