Friday, 16 February 2018

Nifty jumped on positive global cues but slips from the day high on concern of big frauds in corporate bank loan & PNB fiasco

Market Wrap: 15/02/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Feb):10557 (+62; +0.59%)

(NS: 10545; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 26.97; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):25440 (+82; +0.33%)

(BNS: 25424; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 29.32; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 16/02/2018: Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Updated: 08:50
(SGX-NF: 10580); +23 points
(gap up on positive US/global cues)

Expected BNF opening: 25450

Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10560/10510-10480/10430

Resistance for NF: 10615/10655-10675/10735

Support for BNF: 25400/25250-25000/24800

Resistance for BNF: 25650/25875-25950/26050

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10675 area for further rally towards 10735- 10785 & 10860-10925 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 10655-10615 area, NF may fall towards 10560-10520 & 10480-10430 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25650 area for further rally towards 25875/25950-26050 & 26250-26550 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25600 area, BNF may fall towards 25400-25250 & 25000-24800 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Feb/India-50) today (15th Feb) closed around 10557, jumped by almost 62 points (+0.59%) on positive global cues, but slipped from the day high of 10630 on concern of series of bank loan frauds starting from PNB and new NPA rules by RBI; it made a session low of 10505.

Apart from PNB, market is concerned that several other PSBS and also some private banks may be involved in such corporate big loan frauds; i.e. trust in the credibility of banks may be shambled now for this PNB fiasco. 

Indian bond yields surged over 7.57% again on concern of ballooning banking NPA and trust deficit apart from fiscal woes & higher oil; PSBS dragged the market along with some private banks., while metals, energies/OMC helped.

Basically, Indian market is now being boosted by a lower USD, which is good for the overall Indian economy, being an import oriented country but may be bad for Nifty earnings as almost 60% is dependent on exports income.

A lower WPI (Indian version of PPI) for Jan at 2.84% vs est 3.25%; prior: 3.58% may have also boosted the market sentiment today.

But tepid trade data (export/import) and subsequent surge in trade deficits at -16.30B vs est -12.97B; prior: -14.88B may not be good for the CAD & fiscal deficits.





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