Market Wrap: 07/02/2018 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Feb):10451 (-62; -0.59%)
(NS: 10477; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 26.80; Abv
2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Jan):25630 (-219; -0.85%)
(BNS: 25670; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 29.61; Abv
3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 08/02/2018: Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)
Updated: 07:30 (SGX-NF: 10518); +67 points (+0.64% on positive global
cues)
Support for NF: 10480/10430-10380/10295
Resistance for NF: 10605/10640-10685/10735
Support for BNF: 25700/25500-25400/25200
Resistance for BNF: 26000/26200-26400/26600
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty
Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10605-10640 area for further rally towards 10685-10735
& 10775-10825-10865 zone in the short term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip
side, sustaining below 10585 area, NF may fall towards 10530/10480-10430/10410
& 10380-10280 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank
Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 26000 area for further rally towards 26200-26400
& 26600-26800 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining
below 25950 area, BNF may fall towards 25700-25500 & 25400-25200 area in
the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut-Feb/India-50) today (7th
Feb) closed around 10451, slipped by almost 62 points
(-0.59%) after hawkish hold stance by RBI and a virtual denial of additional
dividend by the central bank to the government. Indian market underperformed after
opening gap up on positive global cues; it made an opening high of around 10625
& post-RBI session low of 10443.
As par RBI Gov (Patel): “Fiscal stance to achieve
4% inflation target is important; fiscal slippages and consolidation
postponement have added to bond yield rise; we felt not necessary at this stage
to change repo rate or stance without more data; monetary policy flexible in
responding to inflation risk; RBI has already share dividend with the
government for this year”.
In brief RBI is very much hawkish on inflation,
but optimistic on Indian growth as well as prospect of global economy, which in
turn may help the Indian export also. RBI is concerned over higher oil &
commodity prices, HRA impact (wage growth of public sector employees), effect
of higher MSP (minimum support price) on food inflation, increase of custom
duties of various products in the recent budget & its adverse effect on
core inflation and fiscal slippages.
RBI expects headline CPI around 5.1% in Q4FY18 and
between 5.1-5.6% for H1FY19, but it projects 4.5-4.6% CPI in H2FY19 on
favourable base effect as HRA impact will be subsidized by then. RBI is also
concerned about sticky nature of core inflation consistently hovering around
5%.
RBI projects GVA downwards for FY18 at 6.6% vs
6.7% earlier; H2FY18 GVA at 7.1-7.2%; FY19 GVA at around 7.2%.
MPC votes 5 to 1 in favour of hold today; dissent
of one MPC member in favour of rate hike may have also spooked the market
sentiment today; although RBI has not given any signal for an imminent rate
hike, there is also no probability of a rate cut either in FY18 or even in
FY19; the era of successive rate cuts in India may be over now amid increasing
chorus of global QT.
Overall, Indian market was today supported by
automakers, FMCG, media, metals, pharma, reality, infra and energies/OMC, while
dragged by banks & financials (RBI stress on more rate cut transmissions
and new accounting norm from FY-19) and techs.
SGX-NF
BNF
SPX-500
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