Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: Nifty slips on concern of bank loan frauds & new NPA restructuring rules by RBI

Thursday 15 February 2018

Nifty slips on concern of bank loan frauds & new NPA restructuring rules by RBI

Market Wrap: 14/02/2018 (17:00)

NSE-NF (Feb):10463 (-80; -0.76%)

(NS: 10501; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 26.86; Abv 2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)

NSE-BNF (Jan):25305 (-401; -1.56%)

(BNS: 25341; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 29.23; Abv 3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)

For 15/02/2018: Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Updated: 08:50 (SGX-NF: 10540); +77 points

(gap up on positive US/global cues)

Expected BNF opening: 25530

Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF: 10520/10480-10430/10370

Resistance for NF: 10575/10615-10675/10735

Support for BNF: 25490/25400-25250/25000

Resistance for BNF: 25875/25950-26050/26250

Trading Idea (Positional):

Technically, Nifty Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10615 area for further rally towards 10675-10735 & 10785-10850 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 10595-10575 area, NF may fall towards 10520-10480 & 10430-10370 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25875 area for further rally towards 25950-26050 & 26250-26550 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 25825-25775 area, BNF may fall towards 25490/25400-25250 & 25000-24800 area in the near term (under bear case scenario)

Indian market (Nifty Fut-Feb/India-50) today (14^th Feb) closed around 10463, slips by almost 80 points (-0.76%) on concern of series of bank loan frauds starting from PNB and new NPA rules by RBI; it made a session low of 10456 after opening minutes high of 10587 on positive global cues. Apart from PNB, market is concerned that several other PSBS and also some private banks may be involved in such loan frauds.

Market is also concerned about earnings impact of the banks, especially corporate savvy on new NPA restructuring rules as they will be not able to hide the NPA under the disguise of various restructuring schemes available earlier.

Thus, Indian market tumbled today despite lower oil & supportive global cues.

Overall, today Indian market was dragged by almost all the sectors like banks & financials, specially PSBS, auto, FMCG, media, pharma while supported by reality, infra, energies/OMC to some extent.

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