Market Wrap: 05/02/2018 (17:00)
NSE-NF (Feb):10705 (-51; -0.47%)
(NS: 10666; Q2FY18 EPS: 391; Q2FY18 PE: 27.28; Abv
2-SD of 25; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 418; Proj Fair Value: 8360)
NSE-BNF (Jan):26214 (-290; -1.09%)
(BNS: 26099; Q2FY18 EPS: 867; Q2FY18 PE: 30.10; Abv
3-SD of 30; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-18 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220)
For 05/02/2018: Feb-Fut (Key Technical Levels)
Updated: 07:15 (SGX-NF: 10350); -355 points
Support for NF: 10280/10240-10150/10115
Resistance for NF: 10450/10480-10530/10585
Support for BNF: 25250/25100-24800/24500
Resistance for BNF: 25400/25500-25650/25950
Trading Idea (Positional):
Technically, Nifty
Fut-Jan (NF) has to sustain over 10480 area for further rally towards 10530/10585-10625/10665
& 10755-10815 zone in the short term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip
side, sustaining below 10450-10415 area, NF may fall towards 10340/10280-10240/1050
& 10115-10035 zone in the short term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank
Nifty-Fut (BNF) has to sustain over 25500 area for further rally towards 25650/25950-26100/26250
& 26400-26650 zone in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining
below 25450-25400 area, BNF may fall towards 25250/25100-24800/24500 &
24350-23850 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Indian market (Nifty Fut-Feb/India-50) today (5th
Feb) closed around 10705, skids almost 51 points
(-0.47%) on negative global cues and domestic worries about Indian macros &
impact of LTCGT (long term capital gain tax) on the overall market.
But Indian market also made a smarty recovery
after making an opening minutes low of 10606 amid clarification of LTCGT by the
CBDT (central board of direct taxes) and improvement in Service PMI, coupled
with some rebound in regional China & Hong-Kong market and made a high of
10722; it opened around 10629 today, gap down by almost 112 points on subdued
global cues; mid/small caps also rebounded and closed almost flat on bargain
hunting. Indian Service PMI (Jan) came as 51.7 vs 50.9 (prior): Composite PMI
at 52.5 vs 53 (prior).
Regarding LTCGT, it now seems that unavailability of
inflation indexation benefit has shocked the Indian market coupled with STT and
government is also in no mood to relent as it would be eventually applicable to
the HNI & institutions (DII/FII/corporates) and not on the “Aam Admi”
(common people/small retail investors), who matters most in the vote politics
for any political party in India, including BJP.
Overall, market sentiment today was also supported
by reports that RBI may transfer additional Rs.0.13 tln more by way of dividend
by March’18 contrary to earlier report; RBI may also hike FPI limits in Gilt
investment from April’18.
Some fall
in oil also helped the market:
But market was also anxious about oil; althoughoil is now also correcting and there is fall in the physical crude oil market,
government may be compelled to cut excise duties if Brent prices breach comfort
level (say $75).
Also, Indian 10YGSEC bond yield is still hovering
above 7.60% on concern of fiscal deficit breach, inflation & a hawkish hold
by RBI tomorrow; government is likely to sell additional bonds of Rs.0.11 tln
at this week’s auctions.
Government is also trying its best by assuring
market repeatedly about its commitment to bring down the fiscal deficit to 3% by
FY: 20-21 & & debt to GDP ratio to 40% by FY: 24-25; but market is
still not convinced.
Today, market sentiment was also supported by Moody’s
positive commentaries about India: “FY19 Budget Balances Growth, Fiscal
Consolidation; FY19 Budget Measures Credit Positive for Most Indian Cos; India
Insurance Market to Benefit from Launch of Health Plan; Merger of 3 PSU
Insurers to Benefit Indian Insurance Market”.
Although, “Modicare” is a long pending aspiration
for Indian “Aam Admi” and it’s great, but implementation may be also a big
challenge for India.
Market may be also concerned about MSME NPA after the
fiasco about corporate NPA; government may be also planning a bailout packages
for the MESE which will be fiscally imprudent.
Today Nifty was supported by Tata Motors (upbeat
earnings from domestic operations), ITC (no fresh cess/tax on cigarettes in the
budget), Bharti Airtel, Bosch (upbeat guidance & improvement in EBITDA
margin), HPCL, Maruti, Power Grid, Bharti Infratel, Tech-M & Sun Pharma by
almost 40 points altogether.
Nifty was dragged by HDFC, HDFC Bank, L&T,
ICICI Bank, TCS, Indusind Bank, Kotak Bank, VEDL, Adani Ports & Bajaj Fin
by around 107 points cumulatively.
Overall, today Indian market was helped by auto
makers (mixed sales for Jan & decent report card and thrust on rural
economy in the budget), pharma, mixed techs (higher USDINR), PSBS, while
dragged by private banks & financials, metals, reality, energies, infra
& consumption stocks.
Sugar stocks were upbeat today on reports of 100%
import duty by the government to support the sector from falling prices and
ensure timely payment to the cane farmers; but these are all helping food
inflation also.
SGX-NF
BNF
SPX-500
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