Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 21/09/2018

On Friday, the Indian market soared on positive global/US cues, lower oil (thanks to Trump tweet blasting OPEC), lower USDINR amid lower US dollar index, oil import/USD SWAP window, ease of US-China trade tensions by “less damaging” and “watered down” Trump tariffs at 10% (neutralized by China 10% Yuan devaluation) in lieu of 25% and China’s “muted retaliation”.

The market still thinks the present US-China duet as not an all-out “trade war” but a “trade skirmish/spats” only. The risk-on mood was further boosted after China’s pledge not to “devalue” Yuan further in its trade war against the US. A full-blown US-China/global trade war is positive for the US dollar amid risk-aversion, while the opposite is also true to some extent.

But the Indian market may also come under renewed stress as US dollar index could bounce back and India’s measures to support rupee are too little and too late. The below normal monsoon, IL&FS default crisis, new SEBI rules for AMC/MF distributions and higher import duties on certain industrial and consumer items may affect the market sentiment

Updated: 09:15

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11345 (+75; +0.65%)

Bank Nifty-BNF: 26530 (+150; +0.55%)

USDINR-I: 71.95 (-0.48; -0.65%)

SPX-500: 2941 (+2; +0.07%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11315/11280*-11260*/11230-11180/11130-11050/10950

Resistance to NF:

11395/11415*-11460*/11485-11515/11535-11580/11605

Support for BNF:

26500/26250-26100/26000-25800/25650-25500/25400

Resistance to BNF:

26750*/26850-26950/27050-27200/27350-27500/27850

Support for USDINR-I:

71.70*/71.50-71.25*/71.00-70.70/70.10-69.85/69.15

Resistance to USDINR-I:

72.05*/72.25-72.55*/72.90-73.05/73.25-73.75/74.25

Support for SPX-500:

2915*/2905-2885/2860-2840/2815-2790/2750

Resistance to SPX-500:

2945*/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070-3095/3155

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11415 for a further rally to 11460/11485-11515/11535-11580/11605 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 11395 NF may fall to 11315/11280-11260/11230-11180/11130 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 26750-26850 for a further rally to 26950/27050-27200/27350-27500/27850 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 26700 BNF may fall to 26500/26250-26100/26000-25800/25650 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 71.70 for a further rally to 72.05/72.25-72.55/72.90-73.05/73.25-73.75/74.25 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 71.50, USDINR-I may fall to 71.25/71.00-70.70/70.10-69.85/69.15 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over SPX-500 has to sustain over 2950-2960 for a further rally to 2990/3010-3035/3070-3095/3155 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2945, SPX-500 may fall to 2915/2905-2885/2860-2840/2815 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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