Technical & Macro Analysis Of Indian & Global Market----: Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 03/09/2018

The Indian market may be supported by the Q1 blockbuster GDP @8.2%, while dragged by subdued GST collection for Aug, mixed auto sales, ongoing stress on Rupee (INR) amid EM currency turmoil (CAD issue for oil import and USD shortage as a funding currency) and higher oil coupled with subdued global cues amid lingering Trump trade tensions (China/NAFTA/EU). The Indian market is also being supported by China’s trade war pain as the Indian economy is relatively much more insulated from Trump’s trade war rhetoric.

Updated: 09:15

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11745 (+12; +0.11%)

Bank Nifty-BNF: 28150 (-67; -0.25%)

SPX-500: 2903 (+1.00; +0.05%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11725/11680*-11650/11625-11600/11550-11500/11460

Resistance to NF:

11775/11800*-11820/11850-11900/11935-11970/12075

Support for BNF:

28100/28000*-27825/27750-27650/27350-27200/27000

Resistance to BNF:

28350/28450*-28550/28685-28800/29050-29115/29415

Support for USDINR-I:

70.75/70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85

Resistance to USDINR-I:

71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75-73.00/73.25

Support for SPX-500:

2880*/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800-2790/2770

Resistance to SPX-500:

2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11820 for a further rally to 11850/11900-11935/11970-12075/12175 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 11800-11775 NF may fall to 11725/11680-11650/11625-11600/11550 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 28350 for a further rally to 28450/28550-28685/28800-29050/29115 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 28300 BNF may fall to 28100/28000-27825/27750-27650/27350 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 70.85 for a further rally to 71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 70.75, USDINR-I may fall to 70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over 2925 for a further rally to 2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2915-2905 SPX-500 may fall to 2880/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Valuation metrics:

Nifty-50: 11715; Q4FY18 EPS: 402; Q4FY18 PE: 29.15; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-19 EPS: 425; Proj Fair Value: 8500

Bank Nifty: 28090; Q4FY18 EPS: 519; Q4FY18 PE: 54.12; Avg FWD PE: 20; Proj FY-19 EPS: 961; Proj Fair Value: 19220

SPX-500: 2901; TTM Q4-2017 EPS: 111; TTM PE: 26.14

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