On Monday, the Indian market is under stress on higher USDINR, higher oil, and higher Indian 10Y bond yields above 8.10%. Finally, higher corporate bond yields above 9-11% are taking a toll on an inevitable debt bubble burst of banks & financials amid extremely higher borrowing costs, which are not viable for their business model.
Also, the legacy issues of NPA divergence between RBI and those of big private banks and some PSBS, including SBI is dragging the overall market sentiment. Global cues are also subdued amid lingering Trump trade war.
Oil (petrol/diesel) being a politically sensitive product in India, the government is facing huge public as-well-as political backlash ahead of the general election in early 2019. Also, a government can “control” stock market, but controlling bond and FX market is much more difficult and often proved impossible. The market is expecting that LICI (government) could bailout IL&FS directly or indirectly, but that may also invite huge political “Hungama” (nuisance) at this moment.
Updated: 11:40
Nifty-SGX-NF: 11080 (-85; -0.75%)
Bank Nifty-BNF: 25270 (-390; -1.55%)
USDINR-I: 72.68 (+0.70; +0.51%)
SPX-500: 2927 (-8; -0.25%)
Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)
Support for NF:
11015/10970*-10940/10900-10840/10790-10750/10700
Resistance to NF:
11150/11180*-11245/11285-11325/11375-11415/11460
Support for BNF:
25000/24900*-24650/24400-24100/24000-23800/23650
Resistance to BNF:
25500/25750*-25950/26150-26300/26400-26550/26700
Support for USDINR-I:
71.70*/71.50-71.25*/71.00-70.70/70.10-69.85/69.15
Resistance to USDINR-I:
72.05*/72.25-72.55*/72.90-73.05/73.25-73.75/74.25
Support for SPX-500:
2915*/2905-2885/2860-2840/2815-2790/2750
Resistance to SPX-500:
2945*/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070-3095/3155
Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):
Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11200 for a further rally to 11245/11285-11325/11375-11415/11460 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 11180-11150 NF may fall to 11015/10970-10940/10900-10840/10790 in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 25800 for a further rally to 25950/26150-26300/26400-26550/26700 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 25750-25500/25400 BNF may fall to 25000/24900-24650/24400-24100/24000 in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 71.70 for a further rally to 72.05/72.25-72.55/72.90-73.05/73.25-73.75/74.25 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 71.50, USDINR-I may fall to 71.25/71.00-70.70/70.10-69.85/69.15 in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over SPX-500 has to sustain over 2950-2960 for a further rally to 2990/3010-3035/3070-3095/3155 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 2945, SPX-500 may fall to 2915/2905-2885/2860-2840/2815 in the near term (under bear case scenario).
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NIFTY-SGX-NF
BANK NIFTY-BNF
CRUDE OIL-WTI
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