The Indian market recovered to some extent
Wednesday from the deep slump of 11437 in Nifty Fut-I and closed around 11512
on a report that the market regulator SEBI would review its controversial
decision to impose a ban on NRIs and PIOs from holding beneficial ownership
(BO) in FPI. The market regulator had basically
imposed a ban on Indian fund managers, managing FPIs/(NRIs fund) causing the
current market jitters.
Eventually, SEBI blinks after heavy selling in the
market and concerns raised by such fund managers. As per the report, SEBI has set up a working group under
the chairmanship of HR Khan, a former Deputy Governor of the RBI.
The SEBI said Wednesday “The working committee has
heard various stakeholders, held consultations and is in the process of giving
its recommendations. The Ministry of Finance has also been consulted on various
issues. Based on these inputs, SEBI will review the matter and shortly take a
holistic view”. This comes after a day SEBI had said it was “preposterous and
highly irresponsible” to claim that $75B of FPIs would exit the country because
of the circular, which was issued in April.
The Indian rupee,
which was already under stress on huge current account deficit, higher oil,
lingering EM currency jitters, came under renewed pressure on the concern of
fund outflow as a result of the SEBI circular. Although, RBI is trying its best
to defend the currency and not to cross rupee (USDINR) the 72.00 barriers (in spot) with its $400B FX reserve arsenal,
the market is also concerned to the fact that around $220 billion of short-term
debt, equal to more than half of India’s FX reserves, will come up for maturity/roll
over by FY-19, which could prove costly, going by the CURRENT plunge in INR.
Although India’s
FX reserves remain solid, it’s also
depleting fast from $426B in April to $403B in August, THE FX reserve is likely
to suffer another slump amid RBI
intervention as the rupee plunged against the US dollar. The combination of surging
Indian dual deficits and falling FX reserve is wreaking rupee severely despite
FM’s claim of “no domestic factors” behind it; only “global factors”.
Updated: 12:15
Nifty-SGX-NF:
11525 (+12; -0.11%)
Bank Nifty-BNF: 27525 (-10; -0.05%)
SPX-500: 2884 (-4; -0.15%)
Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)
Support for NF:
11500/11475*-11445/11400-11345/11315-11280/11260
Resistance to NF:
11580/11600*-11650/11680-11725/11775-11800/11820
Support for BNF:
27400/27300*-27200/26850-26700/26600-26400/26150
Resistance to BNF:
27700/27850*-28000/28100-28200/28350-28450/28550
Support for USDINR-I:
70.75/70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85
Resistance to USDINR-I:
71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75-73.00/73.25
Support for SPX-500:
2880*/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800-2790/2770
Resistance to SPX-500:
2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070
Technical
View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):
Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11600 for a
further rally to 11650/11680-11725/11775-11800/11820 in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 11580 NF may fall to 11500/11475-11445/11400-11345/11315
in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 27700
for a further rally to 27850/28000-28100/28200-28350/28450 in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 27650 BNF may fall to 27400/27300-27200/26850-26700/26600
in the near term (under bear case scenario).
Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 70.85 for a further
rally to 71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below 70.75, USDINR-I may fall to 70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85
in the near term (under bear case
scenario).
Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over 2925 for a further rally
to 2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070
in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).
On the flip side, sustaining below
2915-2905 SPX-500 may fall to 2880/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800 in the near term (under bear case
scenario).
GLOBAL MARKET: iforex.in/news
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NIFTY-SGX-NF
BANK NIFTY-BNF
SPX-500
USDJPY
EURUSD
GBPUSD
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