Thursday, 6 September 2018

Market Mantra (Nifty Fut/Bank Nifty Fut/USDINR/SPX-500): 06/09/2018

The Indian market recovered to some extent Wednesday from the deep slump of 11437 in Nifty Fut-I and closed around 11512 on a report that the market regulator SEBI would review its controversial decision to impose a ban on NRIs and PIOs from holding beneficial ownership (BO) in FPI. The market regulator had basically imposed a ban on Indian fund managers, managing FPIs/(NRIs fund) causing the current market jitters.

Eventually, SEBI blinks after heavy selling in the market and concerns raised by such fund managers. As per the report, SEBI has set up a working group under the chairmanship of HR Khan, a former Deputy Governor of the RBI.

The SEBI said Wednesday “The working committee has heard various stakeholders, held consultations and is in the process of giving its recommendations. The Ministry of Finance has also been consulted on various issues. Based on these inputs, SEBI will review the matter and shortly take a holistic view”. This comes after a day SEBI had said it was “preposterous and highly irresponsible” to claim that $75B of FPIs would exit the country because of the circular, which was issued in April.

The Indian rupee, which was already under stress on huge current account deficit, higher oil, lingering EM currency jitters, came under renewed pressure on the concern of fund outflow as a result of the SEBI circular. Although, RBI is trying its best to defend the currency and not to cross rupee (USDINR) the 72.00 barriers (in spot) with its $400B FX reserve arsenal, the market is also concerned to the fact that around $220 billion of short-term debt, equal to more than half of India’s FX reserves, will come up for maturity/roll over by FY-19, which could prove costly, going by the CURRENT plunge in INR.

Although India’s FX reserves remain solid, it’s also depleting fast from $426B in April to $403B in August, THE FX reserve is likely to suffer another slump amid RBI intervention as the rupee plunged against the US dollar. The combination of surging Indian dual deficits and falling FX reserve is wreaking rupee severely despite FM’s claim of “no domestic factors” behind it; only “global factors”.

Updated: 12:15

Nifty-SGX-NF: 11525 (+12; -0.11%)               

Bank Nifty-BNF: 27525 (-10; -0.05%)

SPX-500: 2884 (-4; -0.15%)

Fut-I (Key Technical Levels)

Support for NF:

11500/11475*-11445/11400-11345/11315-11280/11260

Resistance to NF:

11580/11600*-11650/11680-11725/11775-11800/11820

Support for BNF:

27400/27300*-27200/26850-26700/26600-26400/26150

Resistance to BNF:

27700/27850*-28000/28100-28200/28350-28450/28550

Support for USDINR-I:

70.75/70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85

Resistance to USDINR-I:

71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75-73.00/73.25

Support for SPX-500:

2880*/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800-2790/2770

Resistance to SPX-500:

2910/2925*-2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070

Technical View (Nifty, Bank Nifty, USDINR-I, SPX-500):

Technically, Nifty Fut-I (NF) has to sustain over 11600 for a further rally to 11650/11680-11725/11775-11800/11820 in the near term (under bullish case scenario). 

On the flip side, sustaining below 11580 NF may fall to 11500/11475-11445/11400-11345/11315 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, Bank Nifty Fut-I (BNF) has to sustain over 27700 for a further rally to 27850/28000-28100/28200-28350/28450 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 27650 BNF may fall to 27400/27300-27200/26850-26700/26600 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, USDINR-I has to sustain over 70.85 for a further rally to 71.50/71.80-72.00/72.25-72.55/72.75 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 70.75, USDINR-I may fall to 70.40-70.10/69.90-69.65/69.35-69.05/68.85 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, SPX-500 has to sustain over 2925 for a further rally to 2940/2960-2990/3010-3035/3070 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2915-2905 SPX-500 may fall to 2880/2860-2845/2830-2810/2800 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

GLOBAL MARKET: iforex.in/news

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NIFTY-SGX-NF


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