Technically, LT (CMP: 1559) has strong positional support of around 1540-1530 zone. Sustain below 1530, it may fall to 1470 (another strong positional support). Consecutive closing below 1470, LT may fall to 1400-1323-1245-1137 zone in the worst bear market scenerio.
On the up side, LT has to sustain over 1576-1600 zone for an immediate target of 1627-1680 zone. Sustain above 1680, LT may target 1762-1819-1893 in the short to medium term. Its long term target may be around 1975-2000 & 2300-2350 in the long term (FY:16-17) under the bull market.
Bottom Line: Cyclical Positional Trading Levels:
| SL</>5 | FROM SLR | |||||||||
| LT | CMP | 1559 | ||||||||
| T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 | T6 | T7 | SLR | |||
| Strong > | 1540 | 1576 | 1602* | 1627 | 1655 | 1680 | 1718-1760 | 1819-1892 | <1530 | |
| Weak < | 1530 | 1512 | 1470* | 1413-1400 | 1323 | 1245 | 1137 | 1030 | >1540 | |
As for Nifty Fut (May:CMP-8131), moderate technical support is around 8171-8100-8076 zone & it has to sustain over 8217-8267 zone for any up move towards 8400 area. Yesterday's lower CPI & IIP data may call for a possible 0.25% rate cut by RBI by June meeting (if not done shortly before policy date & monsoon factor).
LT is like Caterpillar of US market in India. Its a reflection of Indian growth story & one of the major beneficiary of infrastructure push in "Modinomics".
Recently, as par reports, LT is planning to de-leverage big & targeting to raise over $1 bln by selling stakes in various subsidiaries in FY-16. It also won a combination of orders in various infrastructure segment for a good amount of around Rs.2674 cr.
For a well managed company like LT, there may be no dearth of orders, but slow execution & narrow margins dent the bottom line over the last few quarters. Going ahead, the worst phase of slow recovery in our economy may be over & we may see some accelerations in all front, specially after one year, Modi Govt in office.
As par BG model, current median valuation of LT is around 1600 & projected values may be around 1750-1900 (FY:16-17) under the current market conditions.
| SCRIP | EPS(TTM) | BV(Act) | P/E(AVG) | LONG TERM | SHORT TERM | MEDIAN VALUE | 200-DEMA | 10-DEMA |
| LT | 61.49 | 381.95 | 25.36 | 1576.00 | 1590.92 | 1583.46 | 1592.8 | 1623.09 |
| LT | 73.8 | 477.44 | 25.36 | 1726.57 | 1742.91 | 1734.74 | 1592.8 | 1623.09 |
| LT | 88.5 | 597.3 | 25.36 | 1890.72 | 1908.61 | 1899.67 | 1592.8 | 1623.09 |
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