Nifty Fut(MAY):Near Term Range 8000-8450 or 8475-8875 ?

Technically, NF (LTP:8359 & SGX NF:8395) has to sustain over 8400-8450-8485 zone for an immediate target of 8675. Consecutive closing above 8675, NF may scale 8875-9200 zone in the near term under the bull case scenerio.

On the flip side, sustain below 8400, immediate support may be 8311-8278-8245-8190 zone. Consecutive closing below 8190, NF may again fall to 8066-8000-7940 zone in the bear case scenerio.

Bottom Line:(Positional Cyclical Trading Levels)

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8395	36
				NF-APR	LTP			8359
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8405		8450-8485*	8500-8532	8555-8578*	8611-8635	8668-8700	<8385
Weak <	8385		8349-8311*	8278-8245	8213-8190*	8154-8131	8103-8066	>8405
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8405		8485*	8532	8578*	8635	8700-8872	<8385
Weak <	8385		8311*	8245	8190*	8131	8066-8000	>8405

NF gave a nice rally for the last few days on the back of some MAT panel positive expectation & rate cut hopes (0.50% ??) by RBI amid reports of timely & not so bad monsoon.

Going ahead, rate cut @0.25% might be already priced in by the market & rate cut @0.50% will provide some rally further. Also RBI is actively considering some more liquidity enhancing measure in the form of CRR/SLR cut against Gold deposits of banks. Currently, many banking industry in India is suffering from an astronomical NPA of around 3 L Cr and liquidity may be a problem for many PSU banks and their recapitalization issue may be a challenge for the Govt. Ultimately, its the banks, which have to fund the "India/Modinomics story".  

Majority in RS is also very important for Modi Govt for smooth passage of various important reform bills. Hopefully, GST & Land bill will be passed in the forthcoming monsoon session, but market will also look forward for the coming state assembly elections, specially Bihar.