Nifty Fut (June) : Dovish or Hawkish RBI ? NF heading for 8510 or 8000 ?

Technically, for NF (CMP: 8318) has immediate good support of around 8276-8260 zone. Sustain below 8260, it may fall to 8199-8145-8045-8000-7940 zone. Consecutive closing below 7940, we may temporarily out of "Bull Market" and NF may head to 7800-7500 zone in the near term.

On the up side, NF  has to sustain above 8310 for an immediate target of 8365-8412. Consecutive closing above 8412, it may scale 8510 zone & sustain above that NF may zoom to 8594-8650-8792-8935 zone in the near term (Bull case scenerio).

Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8316	-2
				NF-JUNE	LTP			8318
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8280		8310-8365	8380-8412*	8430-8478	8510-8594*	8635-8650	<8260
Weak <	8260		8225-8199	8168-8145*	8107-8045	8000-7940*	7910-7860	>8280
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8280		8365	8412*	8510*	8594	8650-8792	<8260
Weak <	8260		8199	8145*	8045*	8000	7940-7800	>8280

In the last few weeks, NF was basically range bound for tepid corporate earnings, not so bad monsoon possibility, rate cut hopes & some MAT confusion. There was actually no major triggers for the market to break the range of 8000-8500 on either side.

Going ahead, its almost certain now that RBI will cut rate at least 0.25% (if not 0.50%) on June'2. Markets may have already discounted rate cut @0.25%  and may not sustain above 8510 zone, even after rate cut @0.25%. Only a dovish RBI (or rate cut @0.50%) may bring the NF to 8935 zone in the absence of any other major trigger.

In the absence of  any rate cut & hawkish RBI tone (most unlikely), NF may crash to 8000-7800 zone.

Slowly, the market is catching with the reality of actual earnings and this type of slow earnings growth may continue till some next quarters. Also there is visible slow down in passing key reform bills in the absence of RS majority for the Modi Govt. Hopefully, Govt is able to pass the GST & Land bills in the forthcoming Monsoon sessions of parliament (NF~9200). All eyes will also be on the state elections (Bihar*/Assam/WB) in the later half of the this year/next year. Also banks has to transmit the full rate cut effect to borrowers.