Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut (May): Technical Outlook (1-5 days)

Technically, NF (LTP: 8338)  has to sustain over 8350-8370-8400 zone for immediate target of 8575. Consecutive closing above 8575, NF may scale 8875 in the next few trading sessions in bullish scenerio.

On the flip side, immediate support is around 8295-8276 zone and below that NF may fall to 8237-8217 area. Consecutive closing below 8217, NF may again fall to 8122-8000 zone in the bear case scenerio.

Bottom Line (Positional Cyclical Trading Levels):

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8335	-3
				NF-APR	LTP			8338
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8320		8372-8400*	8438-8461	8495-8530	8555-8575*	8607-8668	<8300
Weak <	8300		8276-8237*	8217-8171	8136-8122	8099-8076	8050-8000	>8320
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8320		8400*	8461	8530	8575*	8700-8875	<8300
Weak <	8300		8237*	8171	8122	8076	8000-7940	>8320

Similarly For BNF, it is:

BNF-MAY	LTP	17384
	SL >/< 25 POINTS	FROM SLR
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	18300		18360-18442*	18540	18658	18715	18913-19130	<18250
Weak <	18250		18137-18098*	17980	17833	17756	17575-17500	>18300

NF & BNF gave a nice short covering rally from its recent lows on the back of  some temporary solution of MAT issue by the Govt, China rate cut and RBI rate cut hopes, Moody's renewed confidence in Indian economy etc.

Official CBDT letter regarding MAT  published yesterday after closing of market hours may provide some much awaited relief to the FPI(s) till at least Aug-Sep (SC Case on MAT) to this FY & Shah panel recommendations. Slowly, but surely FII(s) will understand that as a democratic country, Indian Govt can't interfere directly in such issues and for that there is Judiciary and committees to take care & India is a "country of various committees". Ultimately, they have not to pay any MAT, simply because India can't afford to play the tails of FPI(s) at all.

But, this whole MAT issue & other taxation matters will definitely force the FPI(s) to think twice before investing in India as rightly pointed out by FITCH.

FY-16 earning downgrades & any failure to passage the key reform bills (specially the GST bill) in this parliament session may dent the confidence of the market in short term. Land bill was already sent to joint LS/RS committee for next monsoon parliament session yesterday & fate of the GST bill may be the same as par reports.

Market will look into today's CPI & IIP no for any possible RBI rate cut shortly (out of policy date).

We need active FII(s) buying for NF to sustain over 8400 & scale towards new high around 9700.