Time & Price action suggests that technically, BNF (LTP:18357) has to sustain over at least 18580 for next up move immediately to 18693-18790 & 18976-19130* zone. Only consecutive closing above 19130, it may target 19480-20290-20934 zone in the near future under bullish case scenario.
On the down side, sustain below 18580, BNF may find initial support around 18351-18137-18014 area. Only consecutive closing below 18014, it may further fall to 17657-17335-17236-17119 zone in the near term under bear market scenario. Only sustaining below 17100 area, BNF might fall towards 15000-14000 territory in the worst bear case scenario.
Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)
| BNF-JUNE | LTP | 18357 | ||||||
| SD/SL=+/- | 25 POINTS | FROM SLR | ||||||
| T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 | SLR | |||
| Strong > | 18580 | 18693* | 18723-790 | 18870-976 | 19030-130* | 19275-481 | <18530 | |
| Weak < | 18530 | 18438-351* | 18271-137 | 18075-014 | 17767-657* | 17495-335 | >18580 |
As we all know, on last Saturday Greece has announced dramatic referendum on current EU/Creditor's debt proposal to be held probably on 5-th July. This means that there may be no deal in the current Greece mega serial, unless & until Greece/EU again changed their mind. This is a very clever move on the part of Greek PM to put tremendous pressure on Troika in this classic game of chicken. The Greece referendum is about asking people there either to accept Troika/Creditors proposal in its current form with the so called austerity conditions associated with it or prepare for eventual default & Grexit. But Greece politicians are confident about a "No Grexit" vote, because, ultimately people there will not like "Grexit" & "Drachma" uncertainty and eventually, some kind of deal (debt restructuring package) will be sealed shortly/mid July, before expiry of 30 days grace period from June-30 IMF default date (most probably). Be sure, there will be more drama on this ongoing saga & we will hear more proposals & counter proposals amid great confusions. The EU leaders are urging Greece to take at least one deal proposal before going into the referendum.
The market will not like such uncertainty for a long time & is currently bleeding with EUR near 1.10 as expected (it may fall up to 1.05, if sentiment further deteriorate). With Greece in full capital control mode today/next few days amid overnight dry ATM(s), banks & market might be closed for today there, it may be an interesting opening for EU market later in the day.
On the other hand, China cuts it lending & RRR rate on Saturday evening as also widely expected to stabilize the epic fall of their market (a mere coincidence or a coordinated move to counter Greece fiasco ?), which is supporting some how the morning Asian market right now.
Be sure that, it will be not a one way journey going further with all the major four central banks will be super active mode with "blazing guns" in order to stabilize the global financial market & to prevent capitulation.
In India, we might hear more pro-reform tone from the Govt amid this Greece crisis (such as PSU bank recapitalization, hint of more RBI rate cut, indication of joint session of parliament to pass stalled key reform bills, infrastructure & affordable housing push etc) in the days ahead, which may prevent future capitulation in our market & we will be in the current range of Nifty (7900-8500) for the time being.
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