Nifty Fut (June): Are We Heading For 8500 Or 8000 (Greece Deal Or No Deal By Today / June-30) ?

Time & price action suggests that for NF (LTP: 8247; SGX NF:8256), immediate technical support is around 8215 zone & sustain below that it may fall to 8180-8098 area. Consecutive closing below 8098, we may again fall towards 8000-7915 zone and sustain below 7915, NF may fall further towards 7880-7810 territory in the near future under bearish case scenario.

On the upside, sustain above 8245 zone, NF may target 8290-8385 immediately.Consecutive closing above 8385, it may further scale to 8495-8550 zone by the next few days. Sustain above 8550, NF may target further upside towards 8675-8875 zone in the near term under bullish market scenario.

In brief, as par monthly EW cycle, we may shortly enter in the 5-th wave now and NF/NS might target 9000 zone by sustaining over 8550, otherwise it could again fall to 8000 area in the near term.

Bottom Line:Technical Trading Levels (Positional)

		Gap Up/Dw	(Indicative)
SGX NIFTY	8256	9
				NF-JUNE	LTP			8247
	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8245		8270-8290*	8330-8385	8402-8495	8515-8550*	8625-8675	<8225
Weak <	8225		8195-8180*	8150-8098	8050-8000	7950-7915*	7880-7810	>8245
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8245		8290*	8385	8495	8550*	8675-8875	<8225
Weak <	8225		8180*	8098	8000	7915*	7860-7810	>8245

Apart from immediate domestic triggers (monsoon etc), all eyes will be on Greece. There is a strong probability (80%) that some deal will be done by today/June-30. If deal is done by today, we may see a temporary global rally and subsequently, NF may scale around 8500 zone. But, again as a classic case of " Buy the runour & sell the news", the market might be sold there & we may again fall to 8000 zone, because the market may take as the Greece deal as an element of uncertainty within EU and endless "game of chicken".

With no deal by today or even by June-30, (low probability @20%) global market may crash in a whipsaw/temporary movement and we may also head towards 8000 zone (equivalent to 1.05 area in EUR/USD). 

But be sure that, central bankers (ECB/Fed) will intervene there heavily with "blazing guns" to restore immediate global market normalcy and market may take it as by kicking Greece out of EURO, (Grexit) a great element of uncertainty has been removed(unless there is contagion effect) and EU will further strengthen as a result.

This, basically, EUR/USD current cyclic range of 1.05-1.15 will be ensured by ECB/Fed in this great drama of Greece (deal or no deal) for their own long term goal.

For NS, sustain over 8550 for target of 9000 might require some additional stimulus apart from Greece deal. GST/Land bill in the forthcoming monsoon session of parliament may be the triggers along with Q1 corporate result trend.