Technically, for Sun TV (CMP:293) has immediate support of 287-280-275 & sustain below that it may further fall to 265-255-250 area. Consecutive closing below 250, it may further fall to 240-215 zone in the worst bear case scenario in the near term.
On the upside, it need to sustain at least over 298-302 zone for an immediate to short term target of 312-317-324 & 335-347 area. Consecutive closing above 347, it may target 362-365-372-389-400 in the medium term. In the long term, only sustaining above 400, Sun TV might target 426-455-485 area under bullish case scenario (FY:16-18).
Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)
| SL</>3 | FROM SLR | |||||||||
| SUNTV | CMP | 293 | ||||||||
| T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 | T6 | T7 | SLR | |||
| Strong > | 280 | 287 | 298-302* | 312-317 | 324-335 | 347* | 362-365 | 372-389 | 400-426 | <275 |
| Weak < | 275 | 265 | 255-250* | 240 | 235 | 225 | 220-215 | 210-180 | >280 | |
We all know the reason for steep fall in Sun TV in the last few weeks owing to reported denial of "security clearance" by MHA (citing "National Security" reason for pending 2G telecom & some other corruption cases against the promoter). This may block the broadcasting license renewal of Sun TV. Although the MIB and AG is against this "security ban" citing that such MHA's concern of "source of funding" & "national security" will not be tenable in court of law (SC). There is also a case pending in Madras HC against Sun TV, in which the Govt/MIB is appealing against the quashing (HC) of its earlier order TO win up to Sun TV. Be sure, all these cases will ultimately go to SC & the company might get great relief from there simply on legal/technical grounds.
Yesterday, there was a report/rumour that PMO has find some "merit" in MHA's "security" concern and Sun TV scrip was consequently crashed again. As par reports, I&B minister (our FM) is coming back from US trip shortly & there will be important meeting between MHA-PMO-MIB on this issue further.
The fact that, AG's opinion is against the step of MHA as it will be not legally tenable at all and due to adverse sentiment (Ease of doing business in India theme), the PMO may ultimately support the stand of MIB & AG in this issue. Certainly, there is a political (South India Politics/AIDMK/RS support) in the whole affairs, but due to overall degradation of investor sentiment recently in India (Nestle/MAT fiasco etc), the Govt may not choose to tail any big corporate group at this point of time. Our FM has also faced some tough questions on the Sun TV issue in his recent US trip/investor conference.
It may also be noted that several other broadcasting companies which are controlled by other business conglomerates faced cases related to "corporate espionage", 2G telecom spectrum and also disproportionate assets, but their security clearance has not been denied by MHA. Moreover, there are many companies which are facing cases/investigations by CBI/ED, yet they were being given permissions to take part in telecom & coal auctions. Also, as par former AG, similar case/instance of security clearance issue was raised by UPA govt for a TV broadcasting channel in AP, but ultimately the then UPA govt had accepted the AG's view (of no legal ground).
Clearly, the present Sun TV "security clearance" issue has no legal ground without any "show cause" notice or any written communications either from the MHA or MIB and will be termed as purely "unconstitutional" in the eye of law, unless the charges against the Sun TV promoters will proved convincingly, till the completion of present investigations & pending judicial proceedings. Though the AG's opinion is not binding on the Govt, but it is generally accepted.
Our FM (also the I&B Minister) is also in favour giving of Sun TV "security Clarence". Being the right hand man of our PM and probably the most respected, important & practical strategist in Modi Govt, PMO might accept the view of his FM for the sake of over all "investor sentiment or confidence" & "ease of doing business" in India and to ensure that "vendetta of politics" do not disturb business climate or any particular business group/corporate house.
If the Sun TV promoters are indeed a threat to "national security", how did the channels were permitted by the concerned authority & running for the last few years ?
Regarding some fundamental aspects, though irrelevant at this point of time, its Q4 result was tepid & below market expectations amid stagnant yields in Ad revenue. The management did not either gave any Ad revenue guidance due to uncertainty on caps Ad minutes which was mandated by the previous UPA Govt till the end of FY:2014-15.
Going ahead, the I&B minister cleared stated that the present NDA govt does not favour any kind of Ad restrictions on either print, TV or digital media. So the entire media/TV broadcasting groups may see better times ahead and Sun TV, being a very popular channel (specially in South India) may be one of them (if permitted to operate normally).
It may also be noted that several other broadcasting companies which are controlled by other business conglomerates faced cases related to "corporate espionage", 2G telecom spectrum and also disproportionate assets, but their security clearance has not been denied by MHA. Moreover, there are many companies which are facing cases/investigations by CBI/ED, yet they were being given permissions to take part in telecom & coal auctions. Also, as par former AG, similar case/instance of security clearance issue was raised by UPA govt for a TV broadcasting channel in AP, but ultimately the then UPA govt had accepted the AG's view (of no legal ground).
Clearly, the present Sun TV "security clearance" issue has no legal ground without any "show cause" notice or any written communications either from the MHA or MIB and will be termed as purely "unconstitutional" in the eye of law, unless the charges against the Sun TV promoters will proved convincingly, till the completion of present investigations & pending judicial proceedings. Though the AG's opinion is not binding on the Govt, but it is generally accepted.
Our FM (also the I&B Minister) is also in favour giving of Sun TV "security Clarence". Being the right hand man of our PM and probably the most respected, important & practical strategist in Modi Govt, PMO might accept the view of his FM for the sake of over all "investor sentiment or confidence" & "ease of doing business" in India and to ensure that "vendetta of politics" do not disturb business climate or any particular business group/corporate house.
If the Sun TV promoters are indeed a threat to "national security", how did the channels were permitted by the concerned authority & running for the last few years ?
Regarding some fundamental aspects, though irrelevant at this point of time, its Q4 result was tepid & below market expectations amid stagnant yields in Ad revenue. The management did not either gave any Ad revenue guidance due to uncertainty on caps Ad minutes which was mandated by the previous UPA Govt till the end of FY:2014-15.
Going ahead, the I&B minister cleared stated that the present NDA govt does not favour any kind of Ad restrictions on either print, TV or digital media. So the entire media/TV broadcasting groups may see better times ahead and Sun TV, being a very popular channel (specially in South India) may be one of them (if permitted to operate normally).
As par BG metrics, current median valuation of Sun TV may be around 435 & its future fair valuation might be around 470 (FY:16-18) under the normal/current market parameter.
| SCRIP | EPS(TTM) | BV(Act) | P/E(AVG) | LONG TERM | SHORT TERM | MEDIAN VALUE | 200-DEMA | 10-DEMA |
| SUNTV | 19.84 | 99.19 | 27.5 | 450.47 | 415.01 | 432.74 | 371.93 | 315.68 |
| SUNTV | 20.85 | 109 | 27.5 | 461.80 | 425.44 | 443.62 | 371.93 | 315.68 |
| SUNTV | 22.05 | 120.5 | 27.5 | 474.90 | 437.52 | 456.21 | 371.93 | 315.68 |
| SUNTV | 23.25 | 132.75 | 27.5 | 487.65 | 449.26 | 468.46 | 371.93 | 315.68 |
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