SBI: 248-240 Might Proved To Be A Good Accumulation Zone For Near Term Target Of 295-305 ?

Technically, for SBI (CMP: 250), immediate good support zone is now around 248-244-240. Sustain below 240, SBI may fall further to 230-220-210-200 zone in the near term under worst bear case scenario.

On the upside, SBI need to sustain at least over 255 for an immediate target of 260-265-271. Consecutive closing above 271, it may target 276-285-295 & 300-305-315 in the short to medium term under bullish market scenario.

Bottom Line: Technical Trading Levels (Positional)

	SL</>2	FROM SLR
		SBI	CMP	250
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6	T7	SLR
Strong >	244	248	255*	260-265	271-276*	285	291-295*	300-305	310-315-336	<240
Weak <	240		230	220*	210	205	199*	190	175-170	>248

SBI corrected more than 10% since RBI event on 2-nd June and around 20% from its Q4 post result peak against overall market correction of around 5% . Eventually, yesterday it broke its long term support of around 255 on the back of downgrading by a host of analysts (from previous target of around 400 to 265) and tepid advance tax figure (Rs.1290 cr @4% Y-O-Y growth).

(http://asisjpg.blogspot.in/2015/05/sbi-decling-trends-of-bad-loans.html)

As par reports, SBI is going full throttle to push its retail rending, specially SMES amid lack of corporate loan demand & huge restructured assets (NPA). It has now robust loan monitoring system put in place along with an early warning for detection & prevention of possible NPA and professionalism like its private counter parts.

Looking forward, some type of good news from Greece drama & neutral FOMC may bring some positive triggers for our overall market along with "not so bad" monsoon news and decent micro economic data (IIP/CPI/Trade Balance etc). 

Historically, SBI, being a market performer, might be in a range (240-295) in the days ahead, until H2/2016, when actual corporate loan demand & real trend of NPA will be clearly visible.

As par quick BG metrics, current median valuation of SBI might be around 265 & its projected fair value may be around 295-325 (FY:16-17) under the current market parameters.

 

SCRIP	EPS(TTM)	BV(Act)	P/E(AVG)	LONG TERM	SHORT TERM	MEDIAN VALUE	200-DEMA	10-DEMA
SBIN	22.76	197.4	11.45	267.14	260.26	263.70	273.85	259.92

SBIN

28.16

227.01

11.45

297.15

289.49

293.32

273.85

259.92

SBIN

33.8

261.06

11.45

325.55

317.16

321.36

273.85

259.92