Market Mantra: Nifty Fut Update

Fed is sounding more "hawkish" than the market thought---

Watch 8125-8090 as vital support zone for NF today---

SGX NF: 8166 (CMP-OCT)

NSE NF: 8186 (LTP)

As par early morning indication, NSE NF may open around 8160-8180 zone following volatile overnight US market (Dow Fut +1% from -0.5%) after FOMC meetings and epic short squeeze in crude oil. Energy shares, IBM and US budget deals (fear of "shut down" diminished to some extent).

As par latest FOMC statement, Fed seems to be more hawkish than market previously thought as it brings out again some possibility of Dec "token rate hike" and keep that event in "live" mode, of course with many caveats.

Fed removed the "global & economic restrains" part of the previous statement from the latest one to make it look like they are not "concerned" about global (China) slow down !!

Now, Fed Fund Rate Future is indicating an possibility of around 47% of Dec rate hike from previous 34%.

Clearly, by this statement, Fed tried for some "balancing act" and to counter the growing criticism about its lack of confidence for global financial market despite reasonable US economic growth & progress.

Looking forward, all eyes will be on US Q3 GDP figure today (Estimate 1.6%). Any figure below 1.5% will be USD negative as it may again put Fed on the side line and vice-versa.

Also, market will watch BOJ meeting tomorrow for any expansion of QQE in Japan and host of FOMC speakers including Yellen herself from tomorrow till 4-th Nov.

Fed might not try to experiment with token rate hike (0.25-0.50%) till March'16 and for that, apart from global market risk, they will take excuses for US "lowflation" (no where around their target of 2%) and tepid wage inflation. They will continue for verbal intervention rather than any real action in the foreseeable future.

In any way, by yesterday's Fed statement, Draghi also got his initial target for EURUSD below 1.10 land mark !!

Apart from this Fed "drama", our market will focus on the ongoing Bihar election, Q2FY16 results and various reform initiatives (like more FDI in PSBS, media as indicated yesterday), being taken by the Govt after RBI did its job done.

Market may not move in a big way until Bihar election exit polls/actual result.

Technically, for Nifty (Oct Fut/Spot), 8125-8090 zone is vital and sustain below that we may fall towards 8030-8000 area for the day.

On the upside, NF/NS need to sustain above at least 8190 for 8250-8300 target for the day.