Nifty Fut (Oct): Hope Of Chinese & Japanese Stimulus Or Something Else ?

At least two/three consecutive closing above 8250 is required for 8435-8675; 

Otherwise Expect 8150-8000 zone again

Trading Levels:

SGX NF: 8265 (CMP)

NSE NF: 8262 (LTP)

	SL (+/-) 10 POINTS	FROM SLR
	Intraday Swing	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8290		8320-340	8380-405*	8435-515	8585-600	8625-675*	<8270
Weak <	8270		8240-204	8150-105*	8059-8000	7977-910	7875-815	>8290
FOR	Conservative	Positional	Trader
			T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	SLR
Strong >	8290		8340	8405*	8515	8600	8675*	<8270
Weak <	8270		8204	8105*	8000	7910	7815	>8290

After a day of range bound trading, NF rallied smartly in the last one hour on Friday amid hope of  more China & Japan stimulus/QE. 

China will publish its official GDP & IIP data on Monday morning and street expectation is around 6.8%  & 6% respectively. For GDP, although 6.5% may be acceptable by the Chinese officials, anything below 6.7% will intensified call for more stimulus and we may see 0.50% rate cut by PBOC shortly.

As par comments of China premier "As long as employment remains adequate, people's income grows and the overall economic environment continuously improves, GDP a little higher or lower than 7% is acceptable".

On Oct'30, there will be BOJ policy meetings and market will keenly watch it for more monetary stimulus. stance as par recent comment of BOJ that they are ready to do more QE, if economic condition so warranted.

In US, we can see some "Gov. Shut Down" drama in the coming days, which may affect USD.

Back to home, we have RIL Q2 result which is undoubtedly above street estimates and may also help to pop up the market. But, there will be host of other results for different blue chips in this week and that's may keep the market volatile. 

FY-17 budget exercise already began; although its too early, one can hope for a true "dream budget" this time.

Apart from ongoing Bihar election result (Nov-1'st Wk) and its likely impact on key reform bill implementations/passage in RS, all eyes will be on RBI's monetary policy on Nov also. 

Although, there is virtually no hope for another rate cut by RBI this time, some tweaking may happen in the form of CRR/SLR/MSF window to boost up festival loan demand (another "Diwali Gift" to the nation even before policy date ??) and to address the liquidity concern of the PSBS.

As par trade data on last Friday, India's export declined sharply which may not be a good news for "Make In India" theme. Although other macros including IIP may be an early indication of a nascent recovery, there is a lot more which has to be done in reality.

Overall, technically NF need to sustain over 8250 zone for at least two/three days for confirmation of further rally and in that scenario, the present 3-rd wave (impulsive) in daily chart, may take us to an extended target of around 8435 area before Bihar election result.

If Bihar election result is positive for BJP, then NF can scale up to 8675 by Dec'15.

**Note: Just now China's GDP came at 6.9% and IIP at 5.7% (over all impact may be slightly positive to neutral as it undermines China slow down story but also diminished instant rate cut/more stimulus by PBOC to some extent.

Analytical Charts: