Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues Following Some Strength In USD Supported By Upbeat US Economic Data, Beige Book & “Confident” Yellen About Strength Of US Economy

Market Mantra: 18901/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8415-8375 & 8485-8510 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8425 Today

Globally, all eyes may be on the ECB today for any indication of tapering and domestically market may keenly watch Q3FY17 results of Axis & Yes Bank after “good show” by Indusind & South Bank despite concerns of demonetization.

Market may also watch any EC action or final decision about budget presentation, although as par some reports, 2^nd Feb budget day is “almost” a done deal.

Yesterday’s flip flops/defensive stance of the RBI at PAC regarding demonetization may be an indication of lack of confidence on the sudden & unprecedented act of “notebandi” and reports of new 1000/- note either by 26^th Jan or after the budget session and subsequent withdrawal of 2000/- notes may add more confusion/disruption for the ongoing effort of the remonetization.

As par some reports, despite FPIS taxation circular is put on hold, there are still some real concerns, which need to be addressed soon.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8425 (-5 points), almost flat following tepid/mixed global/Asian cues.

Overnight US market fall slightly on concern of Trump’s policy related uncertainty as the market may have rallied too much ahead of the harsh reality. But, yesterday’s upbeat US economic data (CPI, IIP) and beige book, underlying the strength of the US job market despite moderate wage pressure along with Yellen’s confidence about US economy and “gradual rate hikes” till 2019 has helped the USD/US bond yields.

Oil fall to some extent after surprise addition of API US inventories, despite OPEC confirmation about the ongoing production cut. But, at the same time, Saudi Arabia has already indicated that this agreement may be effective only for the next 6 months. So, for Crude oil, $55 may be an intermediate top for the time being, unless we see some real deceleration in the supply glut or some surprised incremental demands.

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Technically, NF needs to sustain above 8485-8510 zone for further rally towards 8545-8585* & 8645*-8685 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining below 8460-8415 area, NF may fall towards 8375*-8325 & 8275*-8235 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 19198) need to sustain over 19350 area for further rally towards 19500*-19850 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 19300-19200 area, BNF may further fall towards 19100*-19000/18800 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).

SGX-NF

 BNF