Market Mantra: 11/01/2017 (08:30)
Watch 8320-8275
& 8350-8375 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8330 Today
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may
open higher around 8320 (+35 points) despite some fall in overnight US market
and mixed/tepid Asian cues as market is waiting for any concrete plans from
Trump in his first official presser later today. If its simple rhetoric like
earlier (“We will build America great again”) without any specific plan, market
may be slightly disappointed and USD will be more weak.
But some fall in oil and USD may be helping the
Indian market sentiment today. Also, yesterday’s upbeat result from Indusind
Bank, even in the adverse backdrop of demonetization months (Nov-Dec) may be indicating
that “all is not so bad” as far Q3FY17 earnings are concerned. But, going
forward guidance & Q4FY17 earnings trend may actually dictate the market as
various exceptions & loopholes regarding the usage of old demonetized notes
will not be available after Dec’16.
Recent Auto & real estate sales data and D&B
Business confidence along with PMI reports are all indicating significant
slowdown in the Indian economy as a direct fall out of the demonetization
fiasco.
But, market may be also discounting the perception
that these are all “short term pains” and transitory and everything will be
normal after Q4FY17 as almost all the so called “black money” has entered the
banking system and not destroyed which may be eventually help the great Indian
consumption story again.
In that scenario, everything may depend upon the
pace of remonetization & ease of withdrawal restrictions, Govt/IT stance on
the modalities of applicable taxes on the suspected huge “illegal” demonetized
bank deposits etc; i.e. the time for redistribution & rebuilding of “previous wealth”.
Hints for
actionable trading ideas:
Technically,
NF needs to sustain over 8350*-8375 for further rally towards 8425*-8485 & 8545-8585
for the day (under bullish case scenario).
On the
other side, sustain below 8320*-8275 area, NF may fall towards 8225*-8180 &
8105*-8040 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).
Similarly,
BNF (LTP: 18457) need to stay above 18600 area for further rally towards
18800-19050 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).
On the other
side, sustaining below 18550 area, BNF may further fall towards 18450*-18300
& 18200*-18100 zone for the day (under bear case scenario).
SGX-NF
BNF
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