Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues; Some Fall In USD After Trump’s Inaugural Speech May Help Domestic Market; But Perception Of “America First” & Trade Protection Rhetoric May Hurt EM, Including Indian Market

Market Mantra: 23/01/2017 (08:30)

Watch 8385-8325 & 8415-8485 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open Around 8360 Today

Market may also watch any EC & SC action or final decision about budget presentation today, although as par some reports, 2^nd Feb budget day is “almost” a done deal.

Prediction by Skymet for a resurface of El-Nino in India this year may also drag the sentiment.

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8360 (-3 points), almost flat after mixed Global/Asian cues. After Trump’s inaugural speech on Friday, USD has fall to some extent as Trump did not outline anything specific about his fiscal spending plan. Although there was a clear rhetoric of trade protection & “America First” with another election rhetoric that “We will build America great again”, Trump made no specific allegation of China as a “currency manipulator”. Trump & Co is expected to take a series of executive decisions today after making the 1^st executive decision about overhauling “Obamacare” on his first day. 

USD is getting hammered to some extent and that is helping China market, but Japan is down as Yen is getting stronger.

Fall in USD and “America First” notion may affect the Indian IT stocks today. Also, Pharma pricing issues & scrap of Obamacare may affect the Pharma scrips.

Domestically, all eyes may be on the ongoing Q3FY17 numbers to have more idea about actual impact of the demonetization on the economy. Although, earnings are mixed so far, it’s too early and rather than Q3, when various loop holes were available to use the demonetized cash, Q4 may be a better indicator about this demonetization narrative in the short term.

Hints for actionable trading ideas:

Technically, NF has to sustain over 8385 zone today; otherwise it may further fall towards 8325*-8275 & 8175*-8040 area for the day (under bear case scenario).

On the other side, sustaining above 8415 zone, NF may rally towards 8450/8585*-8515 & 8545*-8585 area for the day (under bullish case scenario).

Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18858) need to stay above 18750 zone; otherwise it may fall towards 18650-18590* & 18400*-18250 area for the day (under bear case scenario).

On the other side, for any strength BNF need to stay above 19000 area for further up move towards 19175*-19250 & 19350*-19450 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).

NF

BNF