Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Holiday Thinned Global Cues Marred By Another NK Missile Launch; After 3rd Anniversary Of “Modinomics” Rally, All Eyes May Be On Progress Of NPA policy, GST, Monsoon & PMI/GDP Data This Week Amid Mixed Q4 Earnings; Pharma May Have A “Black Monday” Today

Market Mantra: 29/05/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9575 (+6 points)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 9550-9490

Key resistance for NF: 9600-9680

Key support for BNF: 23200-22950

Key resistance for BNF: 23375-23500

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (June) may open around 9575, almost flat following subdued global cues in a holiday thinned market following another Scud missile launch by NK; UK, USA & China is closed today for their holidays.

US market closed almost flat at around record high closing following better than expected Q1 GDP revision and other mixed economic data. Market may be optimistic that despite soft US economic data, USA & global economy may withstand gradual Fed rate hike & B/S tightening. FFR is still showing around 80-90% of a June rate hike as there is still no indication for a pause by various Fed speakers; all eyes may be now on Friday’s NFP as its may be a perfect excuse for Fed to be on hold in June(if the NFP data is terrible). Fed may also consider growing US political risks, which may flare again this week as Trump returns from his 1^st “historic” foreign & G7 tour; Trump is back again with his usual “Twitter Tantrum”, which may be the biggest source of market volatility in the recent months.

Back to home, after 3^rd anniversary of Modinomics rally, Indian market may focus more on NPA policy, GST, monsoon and macro data (PMI/GDP) in this week amid mixed Q4 report card (so far). GST, being a “one product, one national tax” instead of the original concept of “one tax, one nation”, may be a cause of concern for all the stakeholders; GST disruption may be one of the headwinds in the days ahead.

Hints for actionable trading ideas for NF & BNF:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9625 area for further rally towards 9655/9680-9770 & 9865-10000/10100 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On flip side, sustaining below 9600-9580 area, NF may fall towards 9490-9450 & 9410-9330 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23375 area for further rally towards 23500-23650 & 23875-24000 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 23325 area, BNF may fall towards 23200-22950 & 22800-22600 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).

 SGX-NF