Thursday, 18 May 2017

Nifty May Open Gap Down Amid “Risk Off” Global Sentiment Following “Trumpdump” (US Political Turmoil & Probability Of An Impeachment Of Trump)



Market Mantra: 18/05/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9475 (-60 points)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 9445/9420-9395/9355

Key resistance for NF: 9515/9535-9580/9600  

Key support for BNF: 22825-22720

Key resistance for BNF: 23000-23075

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut-I may open around 9475, almost 60 points down following “Trump Tremor aftershock”; as a fall out of intervention with FBI (Comey’s) investigation over the alleged Russian link with his close aide (former NSA chief), it’s being seen as “obstruction of justice” and an “impeachable offence” by Trump. Thus, opposition DNC members are calling for Trump’s impeachment and it seems that even his own RNC members are distancing from Trump directly or indirectly for all such controversies. Yesterday, US speaker has indicated that although US congress is supporting Trump in this hour of crisis, it also want an impartial investigation of the whole matter and US congress may push its own bill for tax reform, health care, infra spending etc.

Looking forward, ex-FBI chief Comey’s testimony in the US congress & further development of the impeachment motion by the DNC next week will shape the US/Global market; for now politics is playing bigger role than economics and all these US political chaos are making USD/US bond yields lower in a flight to safety to US TSY bonds, Yen, Gold etc. The whole idea of “Trumponomics” may be in serious doubt now.

In the morning, Japanese GDP data flashed upbeat/better than expected (2.7% YOY; 0.5% QOQ); but a better JP economic data is good for JPY and it may also help BOJ to taper its huge QQE gradually. Thus, a strong JPY is making further pressure on the JP market (Nikkei-225).

Back to home, after opening in deep red, Indian market may take some support from the 9445-9420 zone; otherwise expect more panic today. Apart from deluge of earnings today, domestic market may also focus on the GST meet today & tomorrow for a confirmation about implementation date & various other rules & regulations. A July or even a Sep’17 roll out may be proved as disruptive for the economy in the short term, considering the under preparedness of the stake holders and concerns for input tax credit transmissions.


Hints for actionable trading ideas for NF & BNF:

Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9515-9535 area for further rally towards 9580/9600 & 9640-9680 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On flip side, sustaining below 9500 area, NF may fall towards 9445-9420 & 9395-9355 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23000 area for further rally towards 23075-23200 & 23325-23450 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 22950 area, BNF may fall towards 22825-22720 & 22625-22450 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



 SGX-NF

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