Tuesday, 16 May 2017

Nifty May Open Almost Flat Amid Mixed Global Cues/China Concern & Subdued Trade Data For April; Will Nifty Target The Milestone Of 9500 On 3rd Anniversary Of “Modinomics”?



Market Mantra: 16/05/2017 (08:30)

SGX-NF: 9465 (+9 points)

For the Day:

Key support for NF: 9425/9380-9340

Key resistance for NF: 9485/9515-9550  

Key support for BNF: 22720-22550

Key resistance for BNF: 22875-23000

As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut-I may open around 9465, almost flat following mixed global cues. Overnight, US market closed almost 0.41% higher amid rally in tech (cyber security amid ongoing cyber attack, suspected from NK origin) & energy related shares (rally in oil; although yesterday, it has almost lost half of its intra gain at EOD due to supply glut & tepid demand concern).

In the morning Asian session, China/HSI market is under pressure for renewed concern of the health of Chinese economy after various soft economic data (tepid IIP, retail sales, PPI etc) and supply glut of iron ore, which may be a proxy for its growth. Going ahead, China’s GDP may be reported around 6.5-6%, which is substantially lower than around 8% barely two years ago. But, ongoing OBOR/Silk road initiatives by China may be also positive for metals & cements sectors.

Back to home, after yesterday’s subdued trade data, market may look forward host of Q4 earnings to be reported today, including big names such as Tata Steel, PNB etc. Although, 26th May is the official anniversary for 3 years of Modi Govt, today, it may be the unofficial anniversary date as election result was announced on 16th May’2014. Overall, Nifty has gained by over 25% and mid/small caps were almost doubled for this 3 years of “Modinomics”; now earnings need to catch up with the expectations of the market, which is looking for 20-25% EPS growth over FY: 17-18; so far Q4FY17 earnings were mixed and going forward, 25% CAGR for FY-18 may also be looking little difficult, considering various factors such as GST disruption and tepid private investments & subdued trend of consumer sentiment/consumption. Also, India’s issue of twin balance sheet may be a problem.

Hints for actionable trading ideas for NF & BNF:


Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over 9515 area for further rally towards 9550-9600 & 9640-9680 in the short term (under bullish case scenario).

On flip side, sustaining below 9495 area, NF may fall towards 9425/9380-9340 & 9295-9245 area in the short term (under bear case scenario).

Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 22875 area for further rally towards 23000-23075 & 23200-23325 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 22825 area, BNF may fall towards 22600/22500-22300 & 22050-21950 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).



 SGX-NF

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